Is Peak Oil a Fallacy?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by unretired, Jan 7, 2010.

Is Peak Oil a fallacy?

  1. Yes. Plain and simple

    18 vote(s)
    25.0%
  2. No.

    35 vote(s)
    48.6%
  3. Yes for many middle-eastern deposits but not the whole world.

    1 vote(s)
    1.4%
  4. Get real, it’s all about manipulating the market and making more money.

    1 vote(s)
    1.4%
  5. Just Big Lazy Money; effing the little guy. There are 500+ years of untapped Peak Oil resources let

    2 vote(s)
    2.8%
  6. All ... or 3+ out of 5 above.

    4 vote(s)
    5.6%
  7. There is not enough information to say.

    5 vote(s)
    6.9%
  8. Hell-if-I-know

    6 vote(s)
    8.3%
  1. EON Kid

    EON Kid

    #81     Jan 11, 2010
  2. Why Peak Oil is Peak Idiocy: Endless Oil
    Jan 11, 2010

    Dr. Mark J. Perry

    BUSINESS WEEK -- Consumer demand, technology, and global politics are shifting in a way that could spell a future of oil abundance, not of catastrophic dearth. As Leonardo Maugeri, a senior executive at Italian oil major ENI, puts it: "There will be enough oil for at least 100 years."

    Many analysts and industry executives have little doubt that there's plenty of oil in the ground. "Only about 32% of the oil [in reserves] is produced," says Val Brock, Shell's head of business development for enhanced oil recovery. Shell estimates 300 billion barrels and maybe more might be squeezed out of existing fields, much of it once thought beyond retrieval. Peter Jackson, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' London-based senior director for oil industry activity, has reviewed data from the world's biggest fields. His conclusion: 60% of their reserves remain available.

    The fact that there's still oil for the taking is driving Shell and other majors to come up with new technologies, which are expensive to develop but worth it when crude is riding high. While the price has fallen considerably from the peak of $147 per barrel in 2008, it is still far above what many oilmen expected a few years ago. "You will see companies going into the deep water, going into the arctic, using the best technology," says Maugeri, who sees the oil industry as a dynamic system that responds rapidly to changes in the economic and political environment.
     
    #82     Jan 11, 2010
  3. Because the Arabs know that within two generations we won't be using oil for primary energy generation. They pumping that shit like its going out of style lol, because it will be.
     
    #83     Jan 11, 2010
  4. rbartell

    rbartell

    We may never know because most of the people that write/report on it distort the facts with some sort of agenda. Given the fluidity of information these days, if there was any honesty in today's culture, we'd have a pretty good idea within a week as to how much fossil fuel is left.
     
    #84     Jan 12, 2010
  5. Go and ask Him, how much is left. We humble humans have limited knowledge, and unless a Great Dictator tells us the truth, we possibly won't agree on the details. Honestly.
     
    #85     Jan 12, 2010
  6. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    apparently the Saudis do not allow any sort of surveys, it's based on what they say.
     
    #86     Jan 12, 2010
  7. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Crude vs whaleoil... LOL
     
    #87     Jan 12, 2010
  8. Anybody take heed of my stock pick here?

    ESPH.OB nearing .60

    Ecosphere Techonlogies - will be vital in shale gas drilling, IMHO

    Know your Peak oil dammit!
     
    #88     Jan 12, 2010
  9. Very good point here. One of the great ironies of our time is that the enviormental movement and BIG OIL are in cahoots together.
    This is why there has been no new refining compacity
    added to the USA in over 30 years. Just try to build a petroleum refinery anywhere in the USA. The 10+ years of litigation would add another 20 to 30% to the price . The benefits of restricted refining compacity to big oil's bottom line is clear.
     
    #89     Jan 12, 2010
  10. Why, as an oil company, should I build a new refinery

    (1) for a market with a revenue structure conditioned by marginal cost (i.e. facilities of all competitors partly of fully depreciated)
    (2) seeing that expanding existing refinieries gives me better returns than building a new one (known phenomenon of creeping capacity)
    (3) knowing that the market is bound to decrease by 20-30% over the next decade (fuel efficiency and subsitution with natural gas)

    A new refinery will cost you about 6 to 7 billion USD. You will never get back that money. Oil companies are not that stupid. They put their investments upstream and into natural gas and hand over part of their refining assets to midstream companies that have a difficult time to survive.

    Markets are more efficient than anyone can imagine, and - lucky enough - oil companies pay more attention to change than car makers.
     
    #90     Jan 12, 2010