Democrats Just Accidentally Sparked a Fracking Boom on Federal Lands https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilpri...ally-Sparked-A-Federal-Fracking-Boom.amp.html
I just took some profits, because i covered my whole risk. This is a guarantee that you can buy oil around this level and make good money. I am the master of entries, but i have itchy fingers and when i see profits so quick, i can't resist not to take them. Only to later see, i got the perfect entry and if i calculate the profits i would have had, had i not closed early, i literally want to shoot myself. This is not a joke. It's also a message to myself. Bad news on a dip is a confluence for the trade. It makes it even more likely to work out.
OPEC Members ramping up production to take on US Fracking https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilpri...al/Will-OPEC-Declare-War-On-US-Shale.amp.html
The Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory build of 5.7 million barrels for the week to October 25, pressuring oil prices a day after the American Petroleum Institute reported an estimated fourth consecutive inventory build, of 592,000 barrels.
I don't trade the news, but if i see a lot of bad news, when i am anticipating the bottom to form, i know i'm likely right.
I'll add a few comments which you might consider as you ponder whether now is a good time to make your move in oil. And also, if you have an intermediate term outlook, and you're of the philosophy that all boats respond to the tide. The first point is that corporate earnings seem to be putting in a top, and that is one of the most reliable harbingers of a recession. Then, we in the U.S., are coming into an election year, and Central Banks, by tradition, have not been unfriendly to the administration when going into a re-election campaign. The result in the past has been to delay the inevitable, and make the inevitable a little worse when it finally arrives. (The last interest rate reduction by the Greenspan led Fed going into the W. Bush re-election campaign is widely seen as unwise and unjustified based on the economy and the S&P, which was rising at the time.) Another point: the authoritarian monarchy (ruthless actually) in Saudi Arabia is not to be counted on for accurate information. That might work in your favor! If you take into account compounded inflation (a primary driver of the market's ceaseless long-range upward trend) and real productivity growth you can get a quite accurate picture of where the S&P is likely to correct to when we eventually get into a recession and market excesses are wrung out. These periodic corrections are resets of the market to take it to where it actually should be based on inflation and real growth, and prepare it for the next round of "irrational exuberance" which invariably takes the market much higher than can be justified on the basis of current earnings, which we rationalize by saying the market is reflecting future earnings.
Ahh, so you added the "joke on the margin call" thing to your post AFTER I quoted you on it. So, you probably really DID margin your house on it? Well, glad it worked out. Next time, don't be so sure of yourself. It will bite you in your bum.
And this, my friends, is why fundamental and value-based analysis will never fail. You can't TA your way out of clumsy ole donny sending the market into a tailspin (or a melt up). Whether or not you admit it, you are always trading the news in one way or another. It would be prudent to pay attention to it.
OP's analysis sounds interesting.... but... isolated bullish/bearish analysis rarely makes money... it needs to be coupled with events... events drives price disruption and creates temporary mis-pricing that you can take advantage of. otherwise generic supply/demand analysis you will never be able to beat the commercials who do this stuff for a living! and CoT shows that commercials are short.