Is Obama right about the market? An analysis of several different indicators

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Port1385, Mar 4, 2009.

  1. This shows a large graph comparing 4 bear markets. You can plainly see how the current market is tracking in a very similiar manner to the Great Depression era market. This chart suggests that we may keep tracking with that market.

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    A chart of the current bear demonstrating lower highs and lower lows suggesting the trend might continue.

    http://www.dshort.com/charts/bear-recoveries.html?current-bear

    An analysis of P/Es suggesting that they have to drop further in order for there to be a bottom in the market

    http://www.dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-PE.html?SP-Composite-PE10-ratio-by-quintile

    This chart shows one type of signal. Price has not crossed over the 12 month moving average which has been a fairly reliable signal both in modern times and during the Great Depression era market.

    http://www.dshort.com/charts/SP500-market-timing.html?SP500-monthly-12MA-since-1995

    Dividends have not risen substantially to justify a bottom. Bottoms were set when dividends rose, but now they are being cut.

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    Finally, look at this video and the chart that it shows suggesting next support at around 600.

    http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/03/be_stiff.htm

    I think the S&P 500 still has about 50-100 points to fall in the MONTHS to come before I would even CONSIDER a long term portfolio of stocks.
     
  2. What would Obama know about the stock market? Or economics, for that matter??

    He's surrounded himself with life-long Monetarist's and Wallstreet'ers who got America into this mess, in the first place!