bb, you seem confused. going back to my original point, if all cavement are buying on the assumption that SP will hit 1700, will it actually get there? knowing that everyone is betting on the same thing (Wide Tailz suggest that even the caveman knows he should be long, so therefore everyone is long). what I'm saying wouldn't they think about other cavement chasing after the same rock? would fear not set in? would it not get volatile? possibly never reach it at all? isn't it a keynes beauty contest? and when they start selling - who will they sell too? Tailz says Ben, and that's what you're now saying. so basically Ben is taking the other side of all ES trades when everyone starts selling. that's what you're saying right? isn't that just ridiclous?
i am short i am a bear right now but your very lost. i believe the market will have a gap down like 5% and than we will see if the buyers buy the dip or sellers take profit and shorts follow. your in a trending market right now and its moving up so people believe you stay dumb and long because its working. ben is not taking the ES side if there is a sell off but people believe that if ben is buying 85 billion a month with 0% interest the market will melt up. i totally think the s&p can go up to 1700 because markets work to extremes. now do i think the economic picture backs the markets move in the longer term? noway because i think ben will end the buy back sooner but this is a small limited downside trade to me. i wish i was smart enough to buy in november but it is what it is.
The too early shorts furnish fuel to push an irrationally high market even higher. No one knows when the bull market will end. We will only know after the fact. Those who are itching to short might benefit from reading "The Soros Lectures at the Central European University." A little book available from Amazon for not much more than the postage.
Sell with both hands, mortgage the house, borrow from friends and family; go all in with no stop. Do let us know how it works out, eh?
You can read anything between the lines, and it is usually your subconscious fears that tilt the interpretation one way or another. I don't think you are an idiot. I think you are over-thinking the situation to justify your feelings. Some make money, most do not......
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...rything-is-overvalued-2013-05-10?pagenumber=2 http://online.barrons.com/article/S...578424890523027604.html#articleTabs_article=1 being the cover boy is never a good sign. i would not shoot my load on a short right now because markets can run for awhile but whats the healthy economics here? sales for companies are not up so its like you getting a 10% pay cut and moving to a cheap apartment putting your 3 kids in one bedroom instead of getting a 4 bedroom place. its you using coupons now and buying a cheap car for lower payments. now you have a few 100 bucks in your pocket but are you doing well? that's all companies are basically doing. you really think the fed is just putting all this money in the market because everything is good?
1632 SPX is significant for at least two reasons, longer term. Which is where we landed Wednesday and traded around since. Then again, so was 1000.
I have 18 years of experience in the market and every time market acts differently so I don't know what will happen tomorrow or whether market is a short now or not ( I am short but I don't advertise r recommend it to everyone) but I know the following incidents will happen and when it happens, very rare traders will be on the right side. as someone mentioned market is up 140% but you can rarely find mutual funds that have a 10% return in the last 5 years. It means that we will see a drop that will wipe out all the gains. 1- You will see market drop (like 2%) when no one expects it. Maybe it will start with a very good news. 2- Some people will call it a buttom and will buy the dip ! 3- Market will go up like 0.5% and then start to drop again. 4- Step 2 will happen again 5- Market will drop more 6- Media will be flooded with articles that it was "OBVIOUS" that market was overvalued and we will see a correction. 7- market will keep dropping and it will scare the investors. 8- Analysts will predict DOW 7000 and S&P 800. You won't see predictions of 110000 for DOW anymore 9- Market will drop more and people will sell with loss 10- Market will drop more and people will start to short Your task : Can you predict the rest ?