completely agree - there is lot of bullshit in the media that NOW is the time to buy - given the 20% up from november and we're NOW in a rally! - joke or what? if anything, regardless of strategy, such a consistent move upward is rare - yes possible - but not greatly likely. i'ts more likely for the market to revert to some up-trending mean and then go up further - people book profits no? unless there are no humans buying in this market? what puzzles me is I don't know anyone who is long ! yes there were bulls who I disagreed with at 1540 and they went long and did well... but now? 1630? and 1700 in june? yes possible, but likely? ask yourself this - you been long for the past two months, you've made a killing.. its mid-may and your targetting 1700 - will you hold? but guess what - if you're targetting 1700 so is every other long - that makes it very unlikely to happen because fear will take over. might as well book a profit now or no?
If you have a STOP in place, then you can try whatever you like. However, a short is always less likely to work than a long on something like the ES which MUST go UP over time. An innate feature of a market geared to rise. Personally i'd rather be flat, wait for a drop of ES 20 points or so, and then get long and hold it for a good while whilst it marches on upwards. Measures are always put in place to make sure it doesn't keep dropping. They ban short selling, put limits on how much teh market can drop in a day, remove badly performing companies from the index and replace them with strong ones etc etc. It's madness that people are always calling for downside. Just watch the ES thread on this forum. Most of them take beatings 4 out of 5 days per week as they are always shorting it and having their stops hit. If you MUST take a trade, LONG is always more likely to make you money than short on the ES. End of the day, 30,000 on the DOW jones is GUARANTEED to happen. It's a matter of when.
its never good to short at all time highs the problem is there will be a gap down when its time to short. there is not common sense in the market you hear first quarter will be low in gdp, earnings only going higher, Secular Bull Market, and no recession in site now. than you have a fed buying 85 billion per month into the market with 0% rate talking about risk still. the government is a joke because we won't have a budget and bubblehead ben is like a little girl with no idea how to get out of this problem. did you hear him today? he is saying the stock market is to high but in a cowardly way. the market does not think he has a backbone to end the free money that's why it goes higher and that is the only reason. he has this theory you can make jobs with free money and everybody knows what he wants to see to take the money away. you think a crackhead is going to do what you want so you cut off there crack. haha
you make it sound like a piece of cake to trade... yes market inflates over time but we're not talking evolution of markets over decades, and neither what short selling or put limits there are in place in a crash scenario... you said you rather be flat - but didn't say if you're long or short? it's much easier for anyone to take the short side at this level because a correction is expected - but ignore even that. let's talk 15-30 points. question is, is the next 30 point to the upside or downside? this is after a long rally that we've already had. btw I disagree markets are designed to go up, maybe just western economics as it has terrible finances and it needs inflation for growth. there is no productivity or real growth. everything is based on aritificial numbers. but look at Japan, if you were long Nikkei 20 years ago, you'd still be at a 50%+ loss.
I think there is too much emphasis put on the fed and bernank. you think they really control the market? so why didn't they try harder or quicker when the crash happenend? the truth is their policy does influence the market but doesn't fully drive it. everyone is talking about buying dips because of QE - but look at all the previous rallies in history - it's the same pattern. the QE has nothing to do with jobs in my view - it's more about the dollar and trade dynamics/politics. if they are serious about jobs, there are better ways to do that...maybe it's just a cheap excuse to QE when they wish.
buying the dips has been working for awhile so nothing wrong with it. this is were the problem is lets say opens 40 points lower do you buy than? you might get the buyers or you might get people booking profits at that point. you are right now just watching computers make volume there is no human emotion until you see a big gap.
Long term trend = UP Medium trend = UP Short term trend = UP Higher highs, higher lows MACD signal = Above MACD line Fast moving averages all above slow moving averages And moar suckerz fighting the tape..... What would a caveman do?
if you don't think 85 billion a month and 0% made this market i am not sure what to say. this has never been done its not in the history books the government issues pay and the fed sets the price than buys it. you have companies boiler over with money issuing bonds like apple did because the money is so cheap. why do you think the fed has QE? they are looking for an unemployment rate number that's the answer. whats the better way for jobs? do you see the government passing any bills? i take that back they fixed the airport problem so they can fly home on the weekends.
Hey i was just responding to your question of is this the BEST time to short. And i stick by my assertion that the BEST time to short any asset is when it actually is in a confirmed downtrend, and the market is in a massive up trend. In reality though, I have the same views as you. This market is due for a pull back, but I am not going to try and call tops. Shorting in this market and then "praying" for the long awaited pull back is not my style of trading. So instead I will just wait for something to happen while sitting in cash. I am not going to buy anything at these levels, but I am also not going to try and go short against this irrational market. But if you have a set trading plan and have a set stop in place then go for it. Like I said you could look like a genius in the end.
you need to take it into context - we're at the longest rally in recent times.. it's made record highs and now it looks it seems toppy. the question is, is it time to go long or short? what's weird is, when you ask questions here, people give you paragraphs of ideas but never directly answer or reveal their position. at least that guy Nitro (who's been short and deep in red) is open about it. are you long or short? based on those indicators i guss yes? and you think everyone, including the caveman should be long. and who's suppose to take the other side? the other caveman? and while you're indicators tell you it's a buy, what will happen to all the cavemans gonig long for the last 50-70 points and how will they exit the trade with no impact all at the same time?