truthseeker, have you ever attempted at trading the spread 5/10 or 10/30 spread much more consistent over trying to scalp
I agree with most of what you say. I don't know if markets are efficient. I tend toward believing that they are not.
It seems like you crashed and burned without really taking off. I always say your one trade away from your last trade. It takes a year to make money that is enough to support yourself financially in this profession. It seems like you never had the proper guidance to get yourself going in the right direction.
I've tried trading the FITE and NOB. I've even messed around with butterfly spreads (buy 5 year sell 10 year, buy 30 year) I always found myself risking a half to make a half. Basically a losers game. Upside potential is not that great in spreads. Spreading is basically a hedging strategy...low risk low reward. For some people, that style is perfect....just not for me.... I knew a guy that was trading 900 by 600 FITEs. I thought he was making his firm a shitload of money but at the end of the year they gave him a measly $30,000 bonus.....So even with large lot trading, the FITE doesn't seem to be a viable strategy. Now if you trade 900 lots in the 10 year outright, you can make MASSIVE amounts of $$$. Of course, there is considerably more risk in doing that but each trader has his/her own style that suits him/her. Today I traded ZI for the first time. I saw it breaking out of its high of 11.875. I scaled up above that high and made a very good profit (sold at 12.143). Lately, everything I touch has been turning to gold. This is where the old me comes in and says "put a 60 lot trade in when you feel very sure about something". I have to fight that. Though being maxed out completely when you are right can pay dividends, I can't handle the $1900 per tick move in bonds if I were to do that. Obviously, I would have to cut my loss at one tick if I were to do this. I will fight against this idea until the end. It is a very bad thing for me to be thinking about. When I get up to $40,000, I will increase my position size to 9 as planned. and THAT'S IT!!! This friday may bring me up there with employment....let's see how badly ADP did this time... anyways, thanks for the response
Trading is a one-man show. The only guidance I need is from God. That said, I've made a good come back. I know that I have a long way to go before I am truly succesful. Believe it or not, I thank God for my losses; i feel I've learned so much from them.
looks like you have your game plan in place, good to see that you have researched the idea of spreading
You REALLY don't want to be trading ZI if you have to struggle to fight that urge. Do yourself a favor and take it off your screen!
ZI margins are too high for me to do anything too stupid anyways. I only bought it because I saw it breaking out. I generally do not buy or sell anything other than 30 year bonds (sometimes 2 year notes too). That's about it. I should have made so much money today. I basically sat out the whole time out of fear.....now there's another issue I have to deal with..... Should have bought on low employment. Everyone thinks this means the FED will not be raising rates come tuesday. But do we really have the FED figured out? All I know is that if they raise rates on Tuesday, I'm going to be instantly rich because I will immediately max out a short position in Bonds. I will only max myself out in rare cases like this......of course, I'll scale myself into a max position and cut losses if things do not go my way...we'll see what happens....
Down to just over $35,000 now. Today really sucked for bonds.....i guess I should have known that a a fed pause was already priced in hence the lack of upward movement in bonds today. I can't complain....I've done nothing but buy 30 years ove rhte last 5 or so weeks and I've made a hell of a lot of money doing it too. I watched the currencies today also and was just bewildered at what I saw happen to EUR-USD and USD-JPY. Both pairs moved sharply in opposite directions on the fed pause yet 10 minutes later they went right back to where they were before the announcement. Sometimes I really find it difficult to understand why markets move the way they do. I've seen bonds rally to highs only to go back to where they started at in the morning. I've seen this happen so many times. Now i see the same thing happening with currencies. Why go all the way up if you are just going to come right back down again? Is the market that bent toward screwing people who bought the highs? I'd love some opinions on this.