Is mr. market a liar?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Rocco, Nov 28, 2003.

  1. Thank goodness that you are man enough to ignore a guy you deem to be lying.
    #31     Nov 29, 2003
  2. If I bought QQQ's, NQ's, COMPX futures, and call options on the SMH, all on the same day, and sold each position a week later on the same day -- saying I made 4 consecutive profitable trades is a bit misleading, no?

    Not saying your trades were 100% correlated, but was just exaggerating to make a point. Anyways, well done and hope your success continues! :)
    #32     Nov 29, 2003

  3. Misleading...maybe, due to the fact that you bought similar instruments at a similar time, (kind of like saying you went out with a different girl if she changes her sweater). In my case, I buy very different companies, usually a few days to several weeks apart. I don;t think I'm misleading anyone when I say my trades are consecutive.
    #33     Nov 29, 2003
  4. Rocco


    No. Anyone can not flip a coin and get 44 consecutive anything. The odds are billions to one.

    The odds of getting "heads" when you flip a coin are 50%. The odds of getting heads 10 consecutive times are 1 in 1028. The odds of getting heads 20 consecutive times are 1 in 1,052,672. The odds of getting 44 consecutive heads are billions to one. If "anyone" could do it, we'd have alot of $200 million lottery winners. No, anyone cannot do a 1 in billions event.

    BUT, making 15% on a trade is NOT a 50/50 event. It's more like a 10-20% event, depending on how long you hold it. So, the odds are much longer to get 44 consecutive 15% winners in a row than just fliipping a coin. Billions and billions to one. I learned this at Oxford.

    Of course, if you ignore your losing trades, you can get 1000's of winning trades in a row.

    This board is screwed up. I tried to spread love, and all I got was a lying ape who doesn't tell the truth. As we say in Europe, "au revoir".
    #34     Nov 29, 2003
  5. Not to nit-pick, but if the odds of something occuring for someone
    were a billion to one, wouldn't that mean that about 6 people on the planet would have it happen to them?

    Also, if I put 100 quarters in a box and shake it up, the odds that I will have AT LEAST 40 heads is actually quite high. All I need to do is just "conveniently ignore" the other 60 tails. ;)
    #35     Nov 29, 2003
  6. How did you try to spread love by starting a thread entitled "Is Mr. Market a Liar," and then proceeding to insult the guy over and over?
    #36     Nov 29, 2003
  7. Presently, only 5 of my last 55 trades are losing positions. That's 10%, not 60%. I'm fairly confident at least 4 of these 5 will reach my 15% gain target within the next couple of months. Then they will be added to my streak.

    I'm curious if any of those of you who feel I'm not credible have taken the time to look at the posts I did make when I entered each of my positions. I have provided the links to these posts on another thread.
    #37     Nov 29, 2003
  8. dbphoenix


    It's tough love, MB, tough love :D
    #38     Nov 29, 2003
  9. Mr. Market,

    one question...

    You are achieving 365lbs in do you improve? that is HUGE.

    Could you detail your diet and how long you will wait to get 370lbs?

    Michael B.

    #39     Nov 29, 2003
  10. What is more important to you, the "streak" or making money?

    I don't view your efforts on ET as a valid attempt to share some system and help other traders, but rather to draw attention to yourself.

    Seems to me, that your penchant for self promotion and self idolatry would favor a meaningless streak over genuine wealth creation.
    #40     Nov 29, 2003