Is mr. market a liar?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Rocco, Nov 28, 2003.

  1. Rocco


    You really think that when the ape says "I have 44 consecutive winning trades of 15% of more" that he's not lying??

    The odds of such a feat are billions to one. But you believe him?
    #21     Nov 28, 2003
  2. mmm


    In regards to BlueHorseshoe's comments: I also find it equally amazing how some people make personal attacks in their postings, rather than make constructive comments.

    -- M
    #22     Nov 28, 2003
  3. mmm


    Anyone can flip a coin and have it land heads 44 consecutive times.

    If someone says he has done that, and can show it (say a video), I will have to believe him.

    If someone however says that it was his skill that enabled him to do this, then that is a different matter. The results are more likely due to randomness than skill.

    In Mr. Market's scenario, if he proves that he's achieved what he said he's achieved (by providing brokerage statements), then you have to believe his statement of past returns.

    However, if he says his returns are due to his skill, then I would believe that it's more due to randomness than skill.

    -- M
    #23     Nov 28, 2003
  4. dbphoenix


    Oh, my, "Rocco". Personal insults. And calling him a liar, too. How bitter and unhappy you must be. And this is how Europeans behave? :D
    #24     Nov 28, 2003
  5. Rocco


    You say "just to prove it to you, i'll do it" So do it. No one will say its someone elses brokerage statement because it will contain all the trades you have outlined. Your brokerage statement is unique, no one else will have the same trades, as you've laid them out.

    Now try to dig yourself out from this latest lie.
    #25     Nov 28, 2003
  6. I'm not so sure about those exact odds, but if you look at his trades, they aren't "consecutive", which makes a huge difference.

    I can be a decent market timer in the right sector, i.e. buy 10 gold mining stocks just as gold is about to turn up. Sell them a few weeks later and voila -- 10 winning trades. But you could obtain the same percentage appreciation by putting the same amount of capital in a single gold index, it just doesn't sound as impressive.

    So in effect, saying "I have 44 CONSECUTIVE . . . trades" is quite misleading. Show me 44 consecutive wins with none of the trade dates overlapping, well then I'd be quite amazed :)
    #26     Nov 28, 2003

  7. I would also be amazed at that feat but I'm not enough of a risktaker to try it...In order to properly reduce non-systematic risk from my portfolio, it is imperative that I maintain 10 to 14 open positions. However, if I make 44 closed trades and they are all winners, with no losing closed trades in between, I think it is appropriate to say I have 44 consecutive profitable trades.
    #27     Nov 28, 2003
  8. Aren't you the clown who keeps railing on the negativity and insults on ET? I'm aiming my piece of granite rock at your glass house now buddy! H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-S-Y!
    #28     Nov 29, 2003
  9. Wow, look at the hatred flow my friend. You created an entire thread and poll just to attack this poor guy. Believe, don't believe, agree, disagree, and leave it at that. But not many people here at ET go to this much trouble to insult and attack someone just because they made a better than average claim about their trading. And yet, you not only do it, but you do it right after you start several threads about the negativity of ET. Well?
    #29     Nov 29, 2003
  10. Wow, now this was an elevated and insightful post. Maybe you are maturing here at ET afterall.
    #30     Nov 29, 2003