There's not much about this post that's right. First off, trading is nothing like gambling, if by gambling you mean those casino games where the house has a fixed edge. If you're talking about sports betting, the analogy is better. Trading is exactly like running a small business. The large majority of small businesses fail, and so do the large majority of beginning traders. I've seen people start businesses who had no chance to make it, who were doomed before they started. The reason most beginners fail is that they don't treat it like a business, and the #1 thing that successful small business owners do (after picking a viable idea) is work their asses off 16 hours a day for 2-3 years to get ready and then launch. When I'm working my ass off at trading, my results improve, and if I start slacking in my preparation, my results go south. Poker is probably the worst example you could pick. Poker is a skill game like trading, in which a few skilled players make the money and a majority of less skilled players lose. +1 It's the paper traders who believe success in trading is determined by things like 'randomness, luck and probabilities'.
Maybe you're the Champion and everyone (like me) had to do it the hard way. Trading is a skill, or an amalgamation of skills. Like running a successful business. But the edge, is a skill that is hard to come by. Maybe you discovered a great edge early, or it came naturally. Who knows. For 95%+ of traders, edge is the hardest, most elusive and difficult of all skills to find. It is an incredibly long journey for value amongst a sea of garbage. This is why effort isn't so much a predictor of success, as it is in business.
Yes and no. Sorry, but it is not that easy. It is not like ANY other business. There are a lot of businesses where hard work is everything, and talent nothing. If you are a nice guy, and get some basics right, running something like a small shop does not really require some talent. Trading is not like that. To be a trader you need to have a specific profile and the love for that. You need to combat your own fears, handle that, and love it. It is more like saying "is becoming a five start cook like any other business" and people will tell you "no, you need to love cooking, and better are able to taste things". Trading is not taxi driving, it is more fomula one driving - and only the top win. That said, I think a lot of people can learn trading. But most will not, because at one point they stand up and say "fuck it, not my game". Watch the "Million Dollar Trade" episodes. 8 people, opening a hedge fund over three months. They all wanted to be tranders (funded by some company - basically a tv show). Three of them got on the list to get out, because because all the want, they simply did not have what it takes. Now, for a lot of businesses it really is the same, but... in general, make sure you have the right profile. Trading is really not like opening a shop
Trading has more in common with finding a cure for a disease. With some businesses, simply getting the right location and the right franchise is enough to make it an almost no fail proposition if one also possesses good management skills. As stated earlier finding the "edge" is more nebulous. The correlation between hard work and effort with success is not as straightforward.
I don't recall ever referring to myself as a champion! Because of my natural tendancy to - punch above my weight - I have had a very challenging career in business and speculating! Regarding your comment - "Trading is a skill, or an amalgamation of skills. Like running a successful business." This is exactly the point I was alluding to. " edge is the hardest, most elusive and difficult of all skills to find. It is an incredibly long journey for value amongst a sea of garbage." You may want to sift through a sea of garbage now, but eventually you will realize your folly, as time is your most valueable commodity. It all depends on whether you're here to make money or to be one more knight on the quest for the grail! Regarding edge, yes potentially there are mathematical edges out there to be found, good luck in your search for the holy grail, because you will be traveling with some awesome cut throat companions, including multi billion dollar financial houses. Interestingly there was a poster named "jem" who made good money off an edge right up until the big money boys reduced it to nothing. Somebody had a crack at me for rejuvenating the 5/6 year old thread about this redundant edge without ever comprehending that the real story was the traders journey. Unfortunately many people are so busy argueing their position that they never stop long enough to consider all it's implications! A lasting edge can only be found in applying - "Trading is a skill, or an amalgamation of skills. Like running a successful business." Because nobody can arbitrage this knowledge/skill edge away. Best Regards Johno
There's more to it, than that. Even when a trader searches only profitable areas for edge, there's a cornucopia of bad advice, application, and incomplete information that can easily dissuade and frustrate. This leads to the many doors that are unprofitable, dead-ends. If you were to say it doesn't take much to be profitable @ 30% a year, I'd agree. Try 30% a week. Or 30% a day. Thats another ballgame altogether. And thats exactly what I'm talking about. You refer to it as mythological folk lore, with the implication you haven't experienced it. Few have, I suppose. Its one thing to run a lemonade stand. Its another thing to run a Billion dollar company. There are levels of success within success.
Would you care to post your statements proving " Try 30% a week. Or 30% a day. Thats another ballgame altogether. And thats exactly what I'm talking about.", otherwise I would tend to think your post simply consists of bizzare groundless jibberish! Regards Johno
LOL. I knew you were a Little Leaguer. You've got no business talking authoritatively about profitable speculating when you're hitting a few strokes under par. That's nowhere close to what the market offers, intra-day, weekly, or whatever. Another Big Game pretender. Thanks for playing.
Yet still no proof so it's pretty obvious where the truth lies! Mate, you are so full of shit! Regards Johno