Predicting the future and discovering a fair price to assign to risk are two completely different endeavors.
Sorry, I don't have blanket responses to trading questions that will not depend on current market conditions or will be the "best" answer that fits every trader. In fact, I was never a naked option seller or credit spread seller. I made markets to current market conditions, current prices and supply/demand. I rarely came in to trade with an agenda.
Know your weapons..... In some situations an otm call will do better then a short put....this is the beautiful part of options a taylored expression to your desire