Is it time to Short Gold/Silver/Copper again

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by ehsmama, Jul 7, 2006.

  1. ehsmama


    looks like the Rally is running out of steam. Looks like time to take small shorts again has come. What do others think?
  2. Albrady


    My prediction says dont do it till $650, there is a big chance based on my analysis the Gold at this level might pull back shortly again . So if you want small short take it at $650 range.

    Best luck
  3. Copper is in the biggest bubble in the last 30 years.

    If you go the other way, recognize:

    -It will have violent moves both ways. Don't play if you can't handle it.

    -If you go the other way, you've got to have some patience (I'd say a 12 to 18 month time frame). These things don't just collapse in a day.

    Look at Palladium.
  4. I don't see what you're seeing. Perhaps it's my confirmation bias - I'm long gold right now. What is the gold market telling you that signals that now is a prime time to sell?
  5. Running out of steam? The way I see it, it just started gathering steam again after that huge drop to 550-ish
  6. GLD has had a nice bounce after holding its 200 EMA, but did reverse on Friday after failing at its 50 SMA. If it can't get back above this key level soon, the likelihood for a nice correction could be in the cards. It is also approaching the 50% retracement level from the May high - June low move (around 63.60).

    I will be looking for the gold stocks to underperform the commodity as this is usually a good sign that a correctin is near.
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  7. friday was the first day last week where
    sellers were in control ( after the jobs report )

    what I am wondering is ... if the metals fall this week or into august ... how far will they go

    the run-up last week was really fast so will buyers step in on dips

    or was it just short covering in thin conditions in a holiday shortened week ?
  8. ehsmama


    Dear Pink,
    I am not sure if metals would crash, but indications look like they would.

    1 A big bull market lasting 2-3-4 years
    2. Accelerated Rise with lot of excitement
    2. Then large fall
    3. Then a weak recovery.
    That's all. I think Gold will go up down 2-3 times and then a big thud would come.
    But then this scenario could be wrong.
  9. I don't think a lot of you understand what a Secular Bull Market is.

    This is a longer term trend 2009-2011 being the earliest that these things top out.

    There will be a lot of volatility, but shorting will come with great pain as you are betting against the trend.

    Copper is in the high 3's but in 1970 dollar's (inflation adjusted) we aren't even close to the old highs - let alone the demand issue coming down the road.
  10. Albrady


    on 13/7/2006 at 15:00 hrs the gold was at 654 range and 2 hrs later at 17:00 it dropped toward 644.5 almost $10 gain within two hrs.

    I think the Gold will continue uptrend after it has found the 650 support toward 690 and might stay there shortly before it moves later toward 770 either by Month end or mid of next month indication of major disaster some where is going to happen.
    #10     Jul 13, 2006