is it time to BUY some grains?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by filter, Apr 8, 2010.

  1. DrEvil

    DrEvil

    Still in a chunk of my initial position from 475 area. If this gets over 800 within this week I'm tightening up my stop drastically.
     
    #31     Aug 5, 2010
  2. benwm

    benwm

    awesome DrEvil - but you don't think we'll re-test the 1350 all time highs?? I'm thinking we might have a string of insane limit up days just like the good ol days. Would you want to be short overnight here?

    Not a long term trader myself (I hate overnights as a rule, until I've got more capital that is)

    But I was actually looking at wheat around 500 in April, started noticing really unusually dry soil where I live in the UK, plus some other unusual weather patterns across the world (didn't China have a drought themselves)

    Seemed a low risk long term bet buying wheat, but as I said, I don't allow myself long term core positions.
     
    #32     Aug 5, 2010
  3. benwm

    benwm

    it's just the market doing its job to ensure supplies will increase and satisfy demand for next year

    thats the beauty of markets...just think if it was some central planner raising official wheat prices by at most 5-10% in response to the drought, next year imagine the shortages you'd get.

    price will keep rising until the incentive is great enough to ensure farmers don't shift into other businesses, and hopefully nobody starves as a result of the current shortages
     
    #33     Aug 5, 2010
  4. DrEvil

    DrEvil

    Retest of 1350? Your guess is as good as mine (probably better IMHO). From a fundamental point of view this move seems overdone to me but I'll take what I can get. A string of limit up days would be fantastic.

    When a market goes parabolic like this I prefer to start looking for the exit.

    Good luck!
     
    #34     Aug 5, 2010
  5. benwm

    benwm

    If I was in your shoes I'd definitely take some off

    But you have to keep a runner even if just a small % of your original...

    We could be in the very early stages of a major move, I doubt a ONE (Edit) month rally is the end, probably the beginning.
     
    #35     Aug 5, 2010
  6. benwm

    benwm

    stopped out 782.5
    there were 30k+ on the bid before at 785.75 so it seemed worthwhile getting in front of those guys but I'm not going to be a hero today
     
    #36     Aug 5, 2010
  7. benwm

    benwm

    Dr Evil you'll need balls of Russian steel to sit with this one :D
     
    #37     Aug 5, 2010
  8. DrEvil

    DrEvil

    Yep, she's a wild one :)
     
    #38     Aug 5, 2010
  9. benwm

    benwm

    what else do you trade?
     
    #39     Aug 5, 2010
  10. Dogfish

    Dogfish

    I used to trade Zw Zc Zs and Zl intraday outright couple of years ago. Having brought them back up on TT I can't believe corn has done 183,000 lots today as I speak compared to CL oil at 136k and something like dax 90k. :eek:
     
    #40     Aug 5, 2010