Having farmer friends and living in thee area are only detrimental to your trading. Its all about the charts. Good job.
The real detriment is the locals that know you sit in your home office watching the grain charts during the day and they pop in "from time to time" to see whats happening and to shoot the $hit.
If anyone is interested, I just got out of around 70% of my wheat position. I got involved at 468 and it has had a nice run to just over 700. I'm underwater in the Cocoa short (got short 2910) but have pulled in a tight stop now that I've dumped most of the Wheat position.
With Wheat so depressed at the time and Cocoa so high, it seemed like a nice low risk setup. If I'm very lucky Cocoa will dive from here and show a profit as well ... but that's wishful thinking.
Russia bans all grain exports from Aug 15th, wheat limit up again. Joe public sniffing around the likes of AIGG ETF with all the tv coverage.
No position, but I'm curious (not a wheat trader). Said that Russia production could be down by 25%. There is hot weather in the EU, and too much rain in Canada. Now, even if you account for a 50% drop in production in Russia, all the EU, and Canada, it drops worldwide production by 15%. Is the ~80% increase in two months a result of import/export, hedgers, speculators, maybe issues with '11 crops etc? Thanks for any insights.