Is it stupid to short the top % gainers of the day?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by koonsdawg, Jan 4, 2007.

  1. This trade was a little faster than usual.. But I just bought to cover at 11.10 for a fast 2% gain.

    In fact I think I could have stayed in this one for a little longer and made more. Oh well.. I just wanted to trade it for an example.

    Thanks for everyones input. I have a lot of new ideas brewing and new ways to fine tune my strategy.

     
    #31     Jan 5, 2007
  2. Daaaaammmnnn Dustin.. those were all good trades.

     
    #32     Jan 5, 2007
  3. KenL

    KenL

    I'm confused. Are you shorting them the next day, which the above statement is alluding to? Or are you shorting them the same day like your just completed trade on AGIX?

    Please clarify.
     
    #33     Jan 5, 2007
  4. Bowgett

    Bowgett

    ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The top-performing portfolio in 2006, among the more than 500 that are recommended by the investment newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, gained 75.5%.
    That's an impressive number, isn't it?
    Compounded for 10 years, such a growth rate would turn $25,000 into nearly $7 million. Investors who were postponing retirement because their 401(k)s had been devastated by the bursting of the Internet bubble might be able to retire on time after all.
    Don't for a minute think that you can consistently attain returns this large, however.
    If the past is prologue, your $25,000 will not come close to $7 million over the next 10 years by following the previous year's top performer. On the contrary, such a strategy will shrink that $25,000 to just $1,526.
    Consider the results of a hypothetical model portfolio that each year exactly mimicked the newsletter model portfolio that had the best return in the previous calendar year, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest. Over the past 16 years, this portfolio produced a 24.4% annualized loss.
    That's 33 percentage points per year below what you could have achieved simply by buying and holding the stock market itself, as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={0C378670-FA48-4845-B3E4-BC6311B6CBF8}
     
    #34     Jan 9, 2007
  5. aa35360

    aa35360

    Best reason this strategy might work is because everyone here seems to hate it.
    "Copper the public's ideas and play at all times"- Robert Bacon
    ST

     
    #35     Jan 9, 2007
  6. I'm doing it every single day, and trust me, successfully.
    of cource, it's not that simple "short every gainer", there is some additional criterias, but, again, I'm shorting top gainers every day and it's a perfect technique for me, best amond all techniques I ever used.
    Alex
     
    #36     Jan 9, 2007
  7. Thanks for making that point clear. I am not shorting "every" top gainer. I am very selective on which stocks I short everyday. Each one has a certain criteria it has to meet in order to be put on my watch list for the day.

     
    #37     Jan 9, 2007
  8. the main 2 rules I use:
    1)the basic idea is to short stocks which gained too much on too low volume, I don't have exact digits, but trust me it matters, just check average daily volume and pre-market volume which caused that price spike, the more disbalance you have - the better i.e. high price spike on low volume compared to average daily volume
    2) see charts and never enter the trade before you see weakness in chart, start to short stock which started to fall, usually it happens 10-20 minutes after pre-market open i.e. 8:10-8:20 a.m.

     
    #38     Jan 9, 2007
  9. man

    man

    the other way round you have small odds in your
    favour. this way is half suicide. IMHO of course.
     
    #39     Jan 9, 2007
  10. why it's half suicide? I ALWAYS set stops immediately after entering the trade and never allocate more than 20% of my account into one stock... the suicide to trade that strategy with margin... but allocating maximum 20% and having stops is not a suicide... and, again, trust me, it works fine....
    "It's not what you do, it's HOW you do it !!!"

    Alex
     
    #40     Jan 9, 2007