1% per month for a small account trading futures is an absolute ridiculous goal. Let's see, in this case 1% per month would be $35 NET. Trading YM, that's exactly 7 tics NET in 20 trading days. Compounding profits, the goal remains unchanged until month 8, when the goal rises to a whopping 8 YM tics. You gotta be some kick-ass, extremely accurate, futures trader with unwavering discipline and well beyond the beginner phase to do that! LOL But I'll concede, you are right... That return would have nothing to do with style of trade. Regardless of style if you can't net some *multiple* of 7 YM tics in 20 trading days, probability runs very high that YM trading is not for you. Osorico
It seems like there is confusion between investment returns on non margined assets and daytrading highly leveraged futures? "1% a month is a good first goal" "1/4% per day average" These quotes seem to be saying he can't do it, but in fact the thread asks if you can make far less than those numbers. This thread is about day trading a very leveraged asset; it is not about trading fully paid for stock. He is asking if he can make 10% per month ($17.5*20days/$3500) on a little more than the overnight margin for a YM. Can it be done by a good experienced trader? Sure. Can he do it? That remains to be seen. Balda had it right when he said the YM is about $65000, so are some of you guys saying that a good futures trader can't make $17.50/day or $17.5*250/$65k= 6.7% per year? I will be the first to agree that leverage can wipe you out, but it works to the advantage of a good trader. I would think everyone would agree that you can make 6.7%/year, so it becomes a question of whether the trader can handle the leverage properly. Most don't, some do.
Exactly Osorico. But why exactly do you think that small speculators can earn so much more than large professional speculators? You can trade a 1000 lot of S&Ps as easily as a one lot YM in normal circumstances. Or do you think that beginners in golf should have a realistic goal of becoming the next Tiger Woods overnight?
Jimmygold, I'm in the same situation as you are right now. I've been simulating with the ER2 for about 2 months now and just started becoming profitable instead of losing. What changed in my trading? Well about 2 weeks ago I decided to write down my trading plan in detail and follow it exactly. It's a very simple plan that involves one high-probability setup ( 85-90% success rate) and a very small profit target. I don't deviate one bit now and it is working good. End of day I'm net positive instead of neg. In a month or so I plan to trade with real money with a faily small account. Anyhow I think what you are doing is smart. Some here are saying $17/day is not worth it, go work at mcdonald's, go to vegas blah blah. Well its obvious they missed your objective, which is to trade real time with real money to get the through the learning curve without risking too much capital. But the key here, and the reason why I think you'll succeed, is that your profit target is that much easier to achieve. To me scalping for 1 or 2 ticks instead of daytrading for 1 or 2 points is key. Your chances of replicating a trade for 1 or 2 ticks is a lot higher than going for larger .5 to 1 point moves. You're more likely to get stopped out when you go for that one point or more. Anyhow I hope things work out for you, and I'm willing to bet they will if you've been doing good for the last 4 weeks as you say. Only question I have for you is why YM? ER2 is $10/tick and $500 margin. More bang for your buck.
amazing how self restricting those targets are. A good and profitable trader thinks from trade to trade and not from day to day or for the profit percentage of next month. How can you give all you have when you are limiting yourself from the beginning? How can you achieve the things you want when you compare youself with the majority of people who are claiming to earn figures they are just dreaming of? You have your sim results and your working setups so whats the problem to do the maths when you are just trading a system? The real point is that you definitely dont know what you can do. And asking here will not give you the answer. P.
jimmygold, i'm in the same situation. 5k account, i'm going for for a 20pt target, 10 pt stop YM. it comes down i've read of very little traders who have not blown out an account when starting trading futures. losing 5k is better than losing 20k. certainly better than losing 300k. to me paper trading is like hitting a punching bag in a gym, you can't become a good boxer without getting fights under your belt actually inside a ring. or like mike tyson "everyone has a plan until they get hit". if your confident in your setup, step in the ring and take your beating like a man.
1) It is proven that small accounts, when coupled with sound risk management and a proven profitable strategy can achieve far greater percentage returns than those of multi-million/billion dollar accounts. There are many differences between the two different account types, not just value. 2) Yes, ES offers liquidity. But have you ever traded it? Firstly you need to realize because of ES tic (.25), 9 out of 10 times price will need to move through a limit price for fill. Now then, you come at ES with 1K size during a low velocity low ferocity period, whether market or limit you will affect the price. Yes, it will be absorbed, but how much at what price(s)? Applies to entry and exit. A small retail trader, say 50 or less contracts, has a much greater chance of a)getting filled at one price, entry and exit and b) can employ more types of strategies and styles dependant or independant of velocity and ferocity. Remember, not all strategies are based on volume or volatility expansion. 3) Of course realistic goals are important. But they need to be challenging. I'll wager that when Tiger was a young lad, his coaches did not say "go for par +18 on this course". Or "go for 100 yd drives on the front nine and 150 yds on the back nine.". Osorico