Is it possible to trade the emini Indexes without looking at the price of Oil?...my answer is no...what do you think?
of course it is. the technicals you choose, if they have worked in the past for you, will probably setup the same. they will probably setup with oil though (opposite in price). personally, I have crude running in a small window at all times. have for about a year.
thanks Jay...I was wondering if I was over analyzing Crude when I trade the eminis...I guess I'll keep the window up
increasenow, It's been awhile since we've last talked and I didn't know you were into intermarket analysis. Is Oil the only key market that you use??? If not, what are the others??? By the way, I don't know your what type of approach you're using for intermarket analysis. Thus, can't say if your approach has problems or not. Mark
I use T bonds as well. They often break several minutes before ES/ER2, and always give me an early heads up when they do. They are like crude, strong negative correlation to equities.
Mark...great to hear from you...yes, I greatly use intermarket analysis...it seems as if Oil creates the heaviest opposite moves for the indexes...also seems if Oil goes, so goes Gold...I do not really look at Euro as I think it follows...my approach is basically go opposite if OIl is heavily trending in one direction...also, on a different sort of note...trying to expose overnight DAX, FTSE divergences when the US market opens...look forward to your thoughts...great to hear from you...IncreaseNow
hmmm...interesting...I thought that 30 year Tbonds move after the equity Indexes do?...are you saying they create the move for the indexes like Crude Oil?thanks for your insight
Tbonds, ZB, often move well before ES and other indexes, and often follow. No hard and fast rule, but more often than not, they lead. This is just a guess, but I believe this is due to the larger percentage of professionals involved in this market. Lots of BIG players. Both speculators and hedgers. I rarely just jump into ES just cause bonds may take off, but it does get my attention. I have had many entries over time that were better than they would have been because of this however. If you are not used to watching bonds, you should realize it is often like watching paint dry. They will sit in a small range for quite some time, although with big prints going off, and then whammo! Usually only an obvious supp/resis level stops them once they get a little momo going. Bonds love to test a low, stall, and then go right back up to the high with hardly any pause. (and vice versa short). OK, off on a tangent here, back to the topic.... I should probably note that I also trade ZB quite a bit, so this isn't just casual glancing as it is with crude. I rarely trade crude, and just peek at it throughout the day. Usually, I trade bonds before RTH on equities, and then shift my emphasis as bonds seem to move big early, and then waffle around most days. Give them a look. Overlay 5 min charts of all three also. You will usually see bonds/crude move very similar, and opposite equities. Bonds & equities move the same when the factor behind the move is inflation data, but that is about the only time this is true from what I have noticed.