You have recognize the cycle. The market goes from range to trend to range to trend...etc. Trend starts with a BO (can be strong such as in a spike) or weaker but an obvious BO. Once it gets it’s first PB after the BO then it is in a channel. So the trend “part” of the cycle refers to a BO and a channel combined. Eventually the channel goes into a range which will Be confirmed when there are 20 bars of sideways movement. That range may last 10 more bars (once it has become an identified range) or 100 more bars but eventually a BO top or bottom of the range will happen....then a channel...then a range....SO ON and so on. Once the range reaches 40 bars or more chances are 50/50 the successful BO will be top or bottom. Look to see what part of the cycle it has been in and you will know what is next. Once a trend (again composed of a BO and a channel) flattens out and goes 20 bars sideways then price is in a range. To tell where the market is presently at in terms of the cycle, look at where it was just previously at. That is why you need 20 bars, otherwise a sideways movement could just be a PB and the trend continues. IT NEEDS TO SHOW EVIDENCE IT HAS GONE FROM A CHANNEL TO A RANGE AS TRADING TACTICS AND SETUPS CHANGE FOR BO’S, CHANNELS, RANGES. THEY ARE TRADED DIFFERENTLY. Price ALWAYS is in a channel ( on some time frame). Price always goes from sideways to up or down to sideways then back to up or down. Additionally, it is always in a trend and always in a range on one TF or another. So you can drill up or down to larger or smaller TF’s but in the end you are going to take your signals in the TF you are trading. I may look at 60, 30, 15 min TF’s to get a larger context view but if I am trading in a 5 min TF I want to know what the cycle is doing in that 5 min TF. See, it could be in a 2 or 3 bar PB on a 60 min TF but a range (20 or 40 bars sideways) on a 5 min. Since I am trading 5 min TF I thus trade it using TR tactics on the 5 min. Nevertheless, looking at a 60 min TF may be useful for helping me see if the trend was strong bullish on the 60 min then that 2 or 3 bars sideways to down is probably a Pb and the trend will continue thus giving a BO north in the 5 min TF when the BO does become successful on the 5 min chart. Again Mr Brooks does a much more detailed job of explaining this stuff IF you are serious and can wade through his materials and learn the concepts he teaches. But be forewarned; it is a task. Not for the faint of heart nor for the “quick get me rich set up” many newbies are longing for. My post #29 I hope is helpful in defining when price is in a range BECAUSE that is when the trend has ended for that particular TF. But you have to know when a sideways movement is a range and not just a PB. Hence, post #29 was a partial answer to the OP’s questions. Once price is in an established range what comes next? A BO! what is after a BO? A channel or another range ( stair stepping ranges one on top of the other..yes...it happens) but usually the BO is followed by a channel which is the latter part of the trend then that channel begins to flatten and morphs into a new range and in hind site it is usually clear that the latter part of the channel ends up forming the first part of the subsequent range. Again speedo alluded to this “cycle stuff” and to studying Mr Brooks.
There's no definite clear answer on when it is ranging or trending. But a good gauge is too put three moving averages and if price rises above all 3 and the 3 MAs are in order it is a trending phase.
That can be so, OR NOT. You can have a vacuum race to the top of a broad range and all three MA be in order making appearances of a bullish trend when it is only a race to the top of the range followed by a reversal south. That is why it is necessary IMO to see 20 bars of horizontal PA to call it a range. And if the range is broad enough you can and often will see will see bullish and bearish trends and spikes within the TR. With all 3 ma lining up. If you trade them as a trending phase you can get whipsawed around when price reaches the top or bottom of the range BO’s then goes back Into the range. Now if you see Bull trend followed by a PB (less than 20 bars) and the move resumes and 3 MA’s are in order and bullish then yes you are likely in a trending phase.
Thanks to my methodology, for me recognizing a trend (or lack thereof) is only possible in REAL TIME (and of course ex-post). On the other hand, knowing if a market is at a "top" or bottom" is only possible after the fact. Take a look a here for information that you may find helpful. https://ctcapm.wordpress.com/ Good luck.
No, it's not possible to tell on the far right edge of the screen if a market is ranging or trending. However, if say for example the overall trend is up based on higher time lines and you are able to get in a setup near a possible support level where you are long within a range, you could target the closest resistance level within that range for a higher probability scalp. The benefit of this trade is even if the market is no longer trending higher but is instead traveling between an upper and lower band you have a higher probability to hit your target as long as you are not trading within the middle of this range. Sometimes I like to be right rather than make money so I targeted the 1/2 way point and not the top of the range with a small stop where I would not lose much if the support was violated.
I think that Average Directional Index indicator or ADX is the best way to determine whether the market is ranging or trending.
it's really not good but a scale of everything else it's a 10 meaning it just has a bit of lag. i look at it a lot myself on daily stuff.
Yes it is possible to know today if the market is trending or ranging. However, you can't know with anything other than 50% precision whether tomorrow will change from trending to ranging, or vice versa.
Yes. The hallmark of ranging is confusion. If you FEEL confused then the market is likely in a range. OTHER signs: Up/Down. Races up. Races down. Overlapping bars. Bull bar then bear bar. Once price moves in a sideways fashion for 20 bars it is then in a range. Otherwise, it is likely still a PB and not a range. Aprox 80% BO attempts fail. Of course one will eventually succeed.
Market conditions in any underlying you can bet on may change any time. A stock is in a clear uptrend (new all-time high e.g.) and the minute you've purchased shares, the share price goes into free fall. There's also no 100% universally defined rule on what exactly defines a trend. Most accepted in standard literature is "higher highs" on a gives timeframe as an upward trend, "lower lows" as a downward trend.