Is it possible to increase the mathematical expectation?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by MrAgi1, Oct 2, 2022.

  1. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    This is actually interesting and insightful, Thanks. I would check out that link.


    By reinvest, you mean put in external(new) funds in both pots? Or try moving money between both pots?
     
    #21     Oct 3, 2022
  2. Price movement in financial markets can be considered as continuous random variable which is different from the fixed losing odds at the casino (gambling). Some traders believe they are not gambling because even though the probability of up or down is 50-50, their price target they set is more than the stop loss through some chart pattern or stock valuation analysis...risk/reward overwrites randomness to create an "edge". However, the pattern could turn out to be just a mirage and news/earnings outlook could change the sentiment of a stock...past performance is no indicator of future outcome because the market is a continuous random environment...
    and thus not completely measurable using expectancy, RRR or winrate (also changing variable). These are just guidelines...
    Bankroll management/withdrawal strategy is key to capital preservation..how much/fast can you optimally transfer to your cash pot with least compromising effect on compounding rate in the trading pot is the ultimate formula to find...
     
    #22     Oct 3, 2022
  3. No new funds. Just moving the profits or loss only.
     
    #23     Oct 3, 2022
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  4. Businessman

    Businessman

    The example given on that website: 100% win or 50% loss on a coin toss. Is positive expectation.

    You would just risk a fixed amount on each trade. Like $1,000, or $10,000. No need to do the rebalancing stuff.

    Rebalancing wont work with zero expectation anyway.
     
    #24     Oct 3, 2022
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  5. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    Yes, the example is a positive expected value bet. That got me confused.
     
    #25     Oct 3, 2022
  6. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    @earth_imperator You mean the idea/my question is BS or his reply?
     
    #26     Oct 3, 2022
  7. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    #27     Oct 3, 2022
    Gazillionaire likes this.
  8. i used math for my arbitrage betting in trading the stonk market and sports betting...and i'm green so far.
     
    #28     Oct 3, 2022
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  9. Sorry, my bad.I already have deleted that posting. Of course his reply.
    I found it "silly" wanting to explain price movements with the said anecdote of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle (electron position cannot be determined 100%) of quantum mechanics... Ie. so far fetched to use that physical phenomenon for the markets. Forget it please. :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2022
    #29     Oct 3, 2022
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  10. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    The so called holy grail(non existent):D:D:D
     
    #30     Oct 3, 2022