Is it possible Greece will ever leave the EU

Discussion in 'Economics' started by tenthousandmen, Feb 13, 2012.

Is there any possible case of Greece leaving the EU

  1. Yes

    7 vote(s)
  2. No

    3 vote(s)
  1. Okay, in some conversations today there is controversy about Greece leaving the EU.

    Now that the Euro is taken care of, and Greece has yet another pile of cash, things are fine. But everything from Italy, Spain and other defaults following a Greece default - to Greece's own good, comes down to Greece leaving the EU.

    In your opinion, is there ever a scenario in the future where Greece leaves or gets booted from the EU?
  2. Of course! Most of the countries in the eurozone will inevitably leave. It's just a function of when their current account deficit vs Germany becomes completely intolerable in light of their domestic politics.

    In order of their departure:

    1. Greece or Portugal
    2. Portugal or Greece
    3. Spain or Italy
    4. Italy or Spain
    5. France or Belgium, but if Belgium goes they'll of course have to relocate the hq of the EU which will be majorly inconvenient
    6. Belgium or France
    7. Ireland, assuming anyone is still living there (but then there's still lotsa folks in Michigan, so that proves anything is possible) or Malta (huh? whazzat?)

    After this you'll be left with the "core". Whether any of them leave will depend on if Germany keeps its dominance (likely to the point of being almost a physical law: the strongest region going into a currency union almost has to get stronger and keep getting stronger until every other economy that joined it or was forced in has become a dependency of the strongest one, something that for some reason your average economist has an impossible time wrapping his mind around) and the others can put up with being their shadow.
  3. clacy


    Of course it's possible. It's at least a 50/50 proposition in the near term (<1 yr), IMO.

    Very likely to happen eventually.

    Greece needs a weaker currency for their tourism industry to thrive. This won't happen as long as they are behold-ant to the Euro and Germany.
  4. zdreg


    it will never happen.
    it is one thing to give up the Euro. it is a completely different scenario to leave the EU.