EXACTLY! well at least I am not the only one and another crazy ass day for me.. at profit,,, then negative,,,, then closed at break even
I've kinda just grown to accept this. As an options guy, between commissions and spread, nearly all positions show losses the first day--those that don't usually get special note from me. That said, my remorse today was from closing a position...specifically my VIX hedge (Tuesday). Guess how well that worked out for me today.
I gotta say, to be up 23 points in NQ and then somehow piss it all away and end up negative seems that there is something wrong with your method perhaps?
uh... yeah buddy, thankx for rubbing it in... basically I tried to re-enter the short, I had a solid signal, but got stopped out. The remainder I pissed away on CL.... no mistakes in method, just got whipped out of 2 trades But when I am a perfect trader who does no wrong like you GOTCHA, then I will be set.
Haha.. look who is talking now Mr. "I Just pulled 34.25 points"... "hope you guys got a piece of it". (as posted a few days ago) Plus, I don't mean to rub anything in. All I'm saying is that you make 23 NQ points, which is quite a bit considering the smaller ranges the past few weeks, but then lose it all, it means something about your stops and targets is off. Now you do say you lost it in CL, so that certainly is a factor, but these wild swings are just not good.
actually you are incorrect... check your data... here are the hard numbers for NQ Range... today was 100 points, and the day I had that big trade was 65. there is terrific range on NQ right now. gee, for such an all knowing expert I would have figured you knew that. 12 month range 42 last 30 days 50 2017 range 40 5 yr range 44 10 yr range 42
Good stuff, and I did know. My point was that given that the range has been about 40ish points, as you back up with your data, 23 points is a very big chunk of the range and not something a trader would expect to capture on most days. But you did, which was great, but to give it all back and then some means the first trade is lucky, and then you grind away the rest. What's worse is that if you didn't take the NQ trade, it sounds like it would be a down day for you if you just traded the CL. But then you say that trading the NQ distracted you from taking a good CL trade. I don't know, but to me, all this sounds like its just a matter of time until the luck runs out. Its a good thing you're not scared to enter, and its a good thing you able to hold for nice profits, but I think if we really dig into the stats of your trades, there is perhaps something there which will not lead to good results after hundreds of trades.
Well, I analyze the crap out of my trades... yes,,, catching 34 points inside of 65 range for the day was terrific. And I guess I am being yippity because I am not real happy with myself for the very result you are highlighting. You are asking me to ask myself some important questions. One thing I am considering is whether or not I can handle 2 trades at the same time. Part of me says "sure" and part says "you are asking for trouble" But I am at least asking these questions. I take this VERY seriously. I am dead set that I will be trading down well enough to become full time. To me analyzing and asking these tough questions is like a pro athlete reviewing game film. by the way,,here are the CL range numbers... range is good Range CL this is points,,, not ticks,,, for ticks multiply by 100 30 day 1.31 12 monts 1.35 5 years 1.76 Avr 10 yr 2.35 Avr12 Mo 1.35 Avr 2017 1.24
I look at CL but I try not to even thing about trading it. It seems so easy given how far it can move when it starts moving, but honestly, this is a double edged sword. In many ways, ES is superior because when you are wrong, you can get out in seconds without too much damage, and it takes lots of power to push through key levels. CL is the opposite in that a sneeze can cost you lots of money, and the turns seem to happen in lots of random places as what I would think are key levels get broken all the time. Saying all this, it seems like you would need very different strategies to trade the two, and I just can't imagine that you could have come up with edges for both NQ and CL at the same time. The fact that you jumped so easily from ES to NQ and CL also to me shows lack of discipline. The market only offers what it offers, and you have to accept that. 1 point profit is plenty if you reach a consistency level where you can trade 5 or 10 contracts. But the minute the range turned to 5 points, you jumped ship, chasing more volatility, which once again is a double edged sword. I think it would be better to stick it out in the environment it was in, learn to adjust for that environment, and be ready for when it picked up, like it did now. I have thought that these past couple of days, after your great NQ trade, that you might get killed because of the insane volatility in NQ. Its not even insane really. It gets insane when the NQ blows through 10 points in 2 seconds, which it easily can. That's why I made the comment I made about then staring a new thread about trading the bonds because all of a sudden you find NQ to be moving too quickly. You can of course do what you want, but I think being the expert at just one thing is best. You want to know it so well that you feel confident putting on 5 or 10 contracts. You want to know it so well that you can taste the low range days and know what to do about it, as well as now when the range really opens up and then adjust accordingly once again.
Umm yeah, considering my limit prices aren't hit until the market-makers/bots/HFTs are pretty sure that they can arb a few shekels one way or the other before hitting my bids/asks... plus add the commission. Everything is underwater from the start...