Word on the street is the Fed most likely had their last big horah in saving the market, they have lost control & any further actions to prop it up has far more long term risk than short term reward. Markets bottom in stages, every one is different, each one depends on the financials to put in a bottom before a big rally can launch. Financials are currently down -4.3%
We don't need China to estimate the death rate. Gauging from the worldwide death rate/infected cases, excluding China, the death rate is << 2%. As an example, Singapore has over 90 cases, not a single death.
Don't you think we need to see the disease "run its course" before we know the death rate? Just because the number of deaths is low percentage, perhaps what's being measured is "people sick... some/more of them will die as their disease progresses"? The mortality rate perhaps seems low because what's being measured are the "deaths among those who got 2 weeks hospital treatment". What about those who can't get into the hospital? What's their death rate? And even if the mortality rate remains relatively low, what about if a significant percentage of people are infected at once and for how long are they out of action? IMV "2% mortality rate" is premature to conclude.
%% Expect more media nonsense in an election year; FEB was a slow news month to hype virus nonsense.I dont trust the chicoms; but some of them are more honest than the old CNBC prediction of bird flu pandemic. LOL. A Chinese reporter asked a Chinese official '' why do you change the name of the swine flu ??'', The Chinese gov guy said ''pork is big business, next question'' LOL/true.
I agree with you. However, with worldwide cases outside China of several thousands, it is already a statistically significant sample size to assess the mortality rate. Based on that statistics, it is probably <2%. I am not saying it is not serious because this is so infectious, even a 1% worldwide could mean 100s of millions in fatality.
After Fed statement today likely no rate cut on Sunday. Looks like they wanna try to postpone rate cut till their scheduled meeting
Indeed, 1918 was the right year. 2018 was very offer-side I am not an epidemiologist so it's hard for me to have sophisticated thoughts on the topic beyond the standard common sense stuff. However, it seems to me that any infectious disease with high enough fatality rate and a real-life transmission mechanism is bound to change the fabric of society and have significant economic impact. HIV certainly did and I am pretty sure coronavirus will too.