I remember in 08 some one in a European bank did fat finger and futures were down 3% and Fed cut 75 bps 8am although it feels Sunday before future open 50 bps cut will be perfect time . everyone and their mother will be short Friday night Maybe 200 bln QE on top
This is a pretty manageable trading environment, I don't particularly care as long as the economy doesn't completely collapse. Don't get me wrong I'd rather it be slightly more stable and get a little more juice out of the up moves, but as long as the exchanges stay open I'll find it acceptable. Just an intra-day traders perspective though.
I think talk of emergency fed intervention will cause the market to find a floor and talk is that maybe sunday night there is news out that the fed will intervene and hey maybe a vaccine comes out of no where...there is going to be a huge trading opportunity coming very soon. Vix is also showing extreme fear which we all know the vix barely ever stays above 40 for long periods of time. Going to be an interesting trading day being that its friday and most fridays after a huge week of selling usually means a very nasty down day to end the week....
SocGen Jerome kiervel rogue trade, I recall that cut well. Fed looked somewhat Foolish after news came out. The thing is, not much room to cut. Fed should have been raising rates during economic expansion. We are in uncharteded waters.
Unfortunately its different this time . The fed lowering is just a bandaide this times. Fear is a powerful tool. If people scared to go to malls, eat out,go on trips( airlines,cruises) and even work no amount of printing will matter . Its like eating when you full. You just throw it up . Now i guess they could buy the mkt to hold it up and they might just do that
I agree with Hafez. There is a repricing going on here but the uncertainty is causing the volatility. We are starting to see very real economic impacts simply from the cancellation of so many events and travel and folks just basically staying home for some extended period until this blows over. A floor should be in soon naturally anyway as value folks start stepping in and nibbling more. It's questionable how much a rate cut would help even without the virus, but maybe this is more of a psychological move - if it happens.
Vaccines don't "come out of nowhere". If one was available today it would be many months before it's safety and efficacy could be demonstrated to the point it could be used. Especially given the relatively mild danger of the virus, it's not like Ebola or something where you do what are effectively live trials because the danger of the disease is so much greater than the danger of side effects.
Thats whats very interesting . The death rate is absurdly low. And its mostly older people . The fear is driving this craziness.It might be something we have to live with for a while
2-3 percent is not “absurdly low”. It’s the same rate as the Spanish Flu in 2018 am that killed tens of millions, just about 1% of the global population.
Got the wrong century in there I think. Death rate is only part of the equation, you can't jump from death rate to global population killed without mentioning transmissibility and impact on different demographics, as well as small matters like if we happen to have a World War on at the moment. Death rate from HIV was 100% for decades, obviously we didn't conclude from that that it would kill all of us.