Thanks for that Nathan. The excellent thing is that you're working with the process. The bad thing is that this is not (by my definition) a plan. Its more of an idea than a plan but it does confirm the previous assertion so there's somewhere to start. 1. What everyone says about tops and bottom is right ... I try to buy and sell middles. But you could have a top/bottom plan ... this just isnt one. 2. Items 1 and 2 are a filter, good. 3. How do u know it is and what if you're wrong? 4. Thats a lot of indicators ... how (exactly) do you know it confirms and what if 3 say yes and 2 say no 5. Reasonable isn't a plan its todays guess. Do you see what I mean? A good example on trading plans is Click here for a discussion of trading plans Now, you don't know whether I'm profitable or not. I believe that Steve and NYSEKiller are because what they say matches with what I know to work. What you do know is that you currently are not and that you need to do some work to get there. A trading plan (built on taking some money out of short (scalp) or intraday (long term day trader) or interday trends is IMHO the easiest way to be profitable. Best I abandon my fascination with this thread and make some money myself. ================ Darn, just missed the opportunity to take some easy money out of the middle of a trend. An eye opening thing for you to do would be to guess how long a period is covered by that chart (its HSIN6) as it might influence your thoughts about timing. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1146434">
Cashmoney, I know how you feel, we all know how you feel cause we have all been there. Trying to find something that works, not for the guy the sits beside you or the IB trader but you. Now I'm not the best trader out there, but I am having success. Many people have been asking me how I've done it in a short while, its been planning to trade and trading my plan, and as well as listening to more experienced and just better traders. When someone on one of the threads you start says something instead of taking offence, just listen, think about it and then try to apply it to your trading. With the statment in mind that you don't feel comfortable getting in after the move has started it goes back to your thread of not pulling the trigger, fear, not having confidence in your plan or just not having one is preventing you from progressing as a trader. So my advice to you right now as while with many others is develop a plan (which you are doing) that makes sense and can make you money day in and day out, and number three my friend will not. But who am I, perhaps I don't know a damn thing.
hmmm, if I look at your chart then it is not that much less: 2 moving averages 1 moving average of the high 1 moving average of the low 1 CCI 1 Volume S/R of recent pivot points some highlighting of bars (a background and a foreground one, counting as one but in fact it may be two) that's about 8 items..... vital statistics
Ok, give me a pitch and I'll swing on Monday. btw, I'm probably going to switch to MB for better commissions.
LOL vs, I better reply to that but the question for Nathan was "how long a time period is covered by this chart" Re the items. I have two mas on each chart. I put volume on the shortest one (this one) to show spikes. The cci is only there because I've found that a divergence can suggest that the trend is ending (at least this leg) so its time to get out and let others have the glory of the highest price. This one has more than two mas and the extra colour/bars because its mapping a higher timeframe chart onto a lower timeframe chart. But, Nathan, how long a time period do you think that is (from extreme left to right)?
Jesse Livermore was forced by the actions of the bucket shops to trade longer term. If it had not been for that fact he would never have been able to trade the longer timeframes and make the serious money. Similarly, if it had not been for the flipper in the Bunds I would have been happily going on trading the daily fluctuations, never making the serious money. Please refrain for dissing other traders trading methods, it does not lend credibility to your viewpoint of "mine is the only way to trade". The youngster under discussion has still to learn that patience is the key. And that is only learned over time which is more likely to be measured in years than in months. But such is the "iWant" generation: they want it NOW! I am reminded of the story of the tiger: When a tiger gets hungry he goes on the hunt for some yum yum food. Then when he sees the food he lies down low, until the food wanders closer. He will then chase the food forwards and backwards until he has got it and it is yum-yum time. If halfway during the chase he would change his mind and start chasing something else (like the cubs do) then no food will be had. vital analitics
Nathan, You're young - that's okay, just make sure you set some reasonable goals at the moment. IMO school should be your #1 priority (but I'm just a guy on an internet forum, so by no means should you listen to me). Given you will trade regardless, you next goal has to be a good/detailed trading plan. I'm not talking about screening for potential setups, thats the easy part - any halfwit can do that, what I'm talking about is attempting to define, initially, the skillset you believe you have that will allow you to make money. Whether this skillset is technical/psychological/analytical, make an effort to define it and refine it during and after each trading day. To give a starting point, my personal skill set consists of price/volume/time analysis (essentially Market Profile) and catalyst based event trading. I know exactly what my catalysts are for any given setup - sometimes they are price/volume based, sometimes they are technical, sometimes they are geopolitical, sometimes my intuition can be the best contrarian indicator around (I know how to counteract my fight/flee response), sometimes I can just plain see what others are thinking via the tape (I've been doing this for a while). I have all these possible occurrences and expected reactions ingrained in my head before I start trading everyday - case in point I know what I'm going to do before I do it for everyday and for every trade. I know where moves can potentially start, I know what causes hiccups and I know how to avoid pitfalls in my thinking - pitfalls that involve discipline errors. My focus has always been psychology because that is continuously the greatest obstacle we all have to overcome. When to sell a winner? How do you anticipate potential stop running, where might it end and why? What does stop running look like on the tape? Who's going to be on the other side of my trade? Where is the next price point that others are going to be paying attention to? etc etc...the situations go on and on - this is the type of analytical thinking process you need to develop and have at your immediate disposal. Frankly, a concern of mine is your educational background. Realize that the analytical skills required to understand and act in the markets are most often developed via some formal educational coursework. I do not by any means claim that education is required to trade well, it is definetly not. However, your competition is probably some of the most well-skilled and talented out there. What sets you apart? Are you a natural winner? Do you have a strong desire to succeed? You have to be better than 95% of the people around you - think about that for a bit before you place your next trade. Do you get what I'm saying here? This is a business of information processing and decision making - the structural framework - i.e. your current "trading plan" does not address any of the real issues behind what makes a market work/move and how you intend to use and act on the information you have available. You have to develop a functional skill set that is superior to everyone else.
One year?..I say a year because when I look at the CCI, it reads 166. I've never seen a CCI reading that high on daily charts.
Cash let me chime in here, because I found help in a funny way. Let me explain. One of my friends and mentors asked me if I make notes on my trade set ups throughout the day. I said no, I just remember them Not good he said. Steve said you have to have accurate stats on wins and losses to determine how well your signals are working because when you have a losing streak and you will you need something to fall back on and look at otherwise your confidence will be rocked. Now if you find something that has worked say for the last year, but has 3 losing trades you may feel different pulling the trigger on trade 4 if over the last year it wins x% of the time. If you didn't have those stats you would most likely freeze on trade 4, alteast I did. Does that make sense? Now whether you forward test or back test that's up to you. The point is.......if you don't make notes and have stats you will second guess yourself for sure when you go to pull the trigger because you have nothing to show that your method works. Got it? Are you doing that, making notes forward and back testing? Or are you just going for it, like I used to do? Once you do that you can decide what set ups you like and then make those part of your trading plan and only trade when that set up occurs! Sucessful trading is boring I believe. I am not there yet so I have to listen to what other sucessful traders have told me. If anyone agrees/disagrees I would like to hear feedback. Good trading to everyone. Dan