Heard a good saying, but don't know who to attribute it to: "Don't bet on the end of the world because it only happens once."
I disagree with you - I take it you did not lose friends and/or family in the WTC attack, as someone who did would not refer to it so casually as "blowing some shit up." 3000 people lost their lives there. They went to work in the morning and never came back. The competence of the military did not save those people, the billions in tax dollars we slave for and pay to intelligence and law enforcement didn't save them, and the execution of a bunch of fanatical savages won't bring them back.
OK, we are obviously entrenched in a bear market with seemingly little upside potential. That doesnt mean the world is about to end. Everybody just relax. Its OK. Tommorow the sun will still rise and the birds will still sing.
Ert, Can you elaborate on the nature of your "indepth reserach'"? Let me guess, you got hold of a report by Bob Prector and/or the Eliot Wave theorists. They have surmised that we are in the beginning stages of a 5th wave grand cycle wave retracement or something-with the first wave having begun before the revolutionary war or some crazy thing like that. Based on their studies, the end result will be the Dow below 300- yes that is three hundred-and could very well be predicated by (or at least have as a catylyst) nuclear and/or bio/chemical attack on US soil. I have 5 young daughters and I just hate that thinking about this kind of shit you know?
This thread is very interesting. I remember reading in Liar's Poker about traders playing games trying to come up with trading strategies for various worldwide calamaties. These guys would say buy up US potato futures after Chernobyl since many European potato farmers crops would be out of commision. The more esoteric the connection the better. This made me think of Nassim Taleb's "crisis hunting" philosophy or George Soros decimating the Thai and Malaysian currencies. All of these major shifts can be taken advantage of and present huge opportunities for traders. Ethically though I've grappled with the question if these rifts should be taken advantage of. Personally I've come to think that while it may be wrong to purposely profit from the effects of terror it may be right to profit from the effects of over speculation, currency pegs, banking crises, etc. These are vehicles which allowed a false sense of prosperity. Enevitably thought there will be those who did not enjoy the upside but are hurt by the downside. Its a hard question. I don't know if this type of thinking has a place on Elite Trader but I thought I'd throw it out there. Go check out PBS's Commanding Heights: Globalization episode. It even has a bit on the LTCM meltdown. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/story/ch_menu_03.html http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/interviews/soros.html
<i>the end result will be the Dow below 300- yes that is three hundred-and could very well be predicated by (or at least have as a catylyst) nuclear and/or bio/chemical attack on US soil.</i> imo Dow 300 would be more like - comet about to obliterate Earth. The X-Files said that the aliens invade in December 2012, at the end of the Mayan calendar cycle.
Who cares???? If you are a real trader than you can make just as much $$ going down as going up. I'm so glad that I trade now without a bias towards the bullish side. It really takes out a lot of the stess if you don't care where the intermediate to long term trend is heading. That's the difference between investing and trading. Savage