I was thinking of buying 100 contracts of Obama being re-elected 2012 for 5.65 For an outlay of 565 bucks. And double my money easy it seems. It seems like a no brainer trade. But I am not sure if that site really pays out or is it a scam.
It's totally legit, but it's not exactly 1-to-1. So you're paying $565 and will get back either 1,000 or nothing depending on who wins. Also, an Obama win is not exactly a lock. Right now the polls are tied. No President has ever been re-elected with unemployment this high. Undecided voters usually break for the challenger. I think you'll get more favorable odds if you wait until the election gets closer. At that point, the odds will probably tighten and you might be looking at $510 buy in on Obama.
yeah i wouldn't say an obama victory is even close to a lock. if i had an account i'd love to take the other side of that bet.
That makes sense. It settles at 10.00, I guess I will wait a little longer and see if the spread gets narrower.
I had an account with InTrade for several years (from the time it was created / spun off from TradeSports until the founder died climbing a mountain). I cashed out because I felt I was spending too much time playing markets with shallow liquidity. That said, I had nothing but excellent experiences with them. I think they have a good business model and add real value to society. I remember them fondly. They actually had a market predicting whether InTrade would still be in business a year out. Although, I must say that during the TradeSports days it was a more fair market. Leading up to InTrade they tweaked their system to encourage market making and, imo, it was never quite the same. Still, a whole lot better than the rubbish that goes on at NYSE et al. If the US ever repeals the ban on online sports betting, I'll be first in line to reopen an account!