To swoop, I can predict future moves( in time ) with about 65-70% accuracy in Bonds. and E minis. I was looking and still do for someone who is doing something simillar and possibly develop a method which would predict time and price at the same time. Impossible ? Maybe for now. Because everybody is doing or not doing something is not at all measure of right approach . I am sure that you are well aware of the fact that about 80% of a population is just a cannonenfutter, so following them is not a great idea. Walter
to Mercury 77 To be a market maker , do you have to live where exchange is or can it be done from more sunny locations? I use to write Bond options, but it was too long term for me . Walter
BOBCATHY1 suggested using bollinger bands as a reversal tool. i admire her postings but on this i must raise a red flag. % wise BB reversals are greater than 50+% but i have been burned several times real bad when the trend shot to the moon without reversals. USE STOPS ALL THE TIME.
I've personally never found any consistent reversal times or time periods. I like to look at overbought and oversold stochastic conditions and look for quick reversals in the futures (or same sector stocks) and steep crossings of the %K and %D lines. The timing of these reversals (if they DO occur) can be at anytime during the day. You just have to keep your finger on the trigger at all times and be quick to cut losses if you're wrong.
Old, Yes, there are certain logical reasons to believe that those times may have "structure." I just haven't found a way to exploit it faster or more efficiently than my competitors. As my usual disclaimer would state, that may say more about me than anything else... nitro
If you look through the intraday charts of the S&P, 10am and 3pm will probably pop out as the most frequent timeframes to see significant price reversals or at least counter directional moves (especially when there's a gap open). 4:00-4:15pm in the index futures also seems to have a lot of counter moves if the equities didn't undergo a last hour pullback. Reason - it takes about 1/2 hour for all the opening order momentum to wash out and intraday trading programs start going flat during the last hour.