that one's good as gold. You can bet the farm on it. Someone started the rumor that professionals fade the amatuers. That's why they say never trade the open because the pros are waiting for you. So everybody just started fading the first 20 min move, and so now it is just one big reversal fest, with rich poor smart and dumb alike all joining in. Even when the market continues to move and doesn't reverse there, everybody still gets out. I don't know who makes money on those days. It's not the pros or the amateurs, so it must be somebody that never heard of the opening move reversal. You got to be careful, if you get too many people who don't know what they are doing, then the market doesn't reverse. That's why when I don't know what to do, I try to find somebody who doesn't know anything about the market and I ask them what they think. Usually they are right 50% of the time. But, they can be right 60 70 80 or even 90% of the time if you ask them at just the right time. So that's why I'm trying to figure out if there is a good time to ask somebody who doesn't know anything what they think. Anyone know of a way to time the asking of the question?
Thanks for all your replays, What I am working on is intraday timing method, which by measuring size and lenght of intraday moves will produce trading times ahead of time. I am not really looking to hit exact top or bottom, just to get profitable trade. I got interested in intraday timing by reading timing methods of Fisher, Carolan and Williams but their method were using simpsle measurements of a size and didnot take strenght and speed into the equation. Hopefuly there is someone here who has an interest in this. Walter
This has some value. Good times for a reversal: 11:30 (2 hours into the session), 12:45 (half of the session passed), 14:00-14:30 (the last two hours to go). Quite freqeuntly you can see 12:45 reversals, the intraday chart is then pretty symmetric.
Wally, I have noticed these times( and others ). I was just wondering why I cannot find anyone who is attempting to do analysis the way I do it. To follow fixed, predetermined times will seldom work and it is near impossible to " mechanize it ". Hopefully this tread will encourage someone ( if exists ) to come out with his method. Walter
If there was a way to forecast "accurately" bottoms and tops, don't you think, walter, that everybody would be doing it ?? It is not on ET that you will find anything pertaining to this kind of balloney. Trying to predict the market is probably the first reason why newbie traders fail. Develop a system, go by your MM rules and be consistent is all i can say.