Is intraday timing of tops and bottoms method known by anyone?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Walther, Nov 10, 2002.

  1. I would like to know if someone knows or heard of method which wil produce intraday tops or bottoms in time not as price levels? I was always fascinated by possibility to know in advance at what time the reversal probability is high. I am sure there is someone out there with sincere desire to conquer time as a leading indicator. I mainly trade Bonds but plan to venture into indexes .
  2. I am trying to make myself quit the wisecracks but you sure are making it tough.
  3. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Go easy, easy. :)
  4. Okay I know practically everyone here poos-poos Pristine and Oliver Valez. "Master marketer" instead of "Master Trader"!

    However, in his book "Tools and Tactics for the Master Trader", Valez writes, "These reversal times...are generally so accurate that many of our students and subscribers familiar with the concept stay perpetually amazed. It should be noted that these reversal times are intraday in nature. They serve as a valuable tool for micro traders who constantly look to exploit small price moves throughout the day."

    The reversal times are as follows: 9:50-10:10, 10:25-10:35, 11:15-11:30, 12:00-12:15, 1:15-1:30, 2:15-2:30, 3:00, and 3:30.

    I have not looked at these time per se, so I cannot speak from personal experience. But they might be worth a look.

  5. easy, look how many posts you have!
  6. The easiest way , is when the S&P futures are up or down around 20 points, most likely at that point the market will have a bounce. But of course, they could go down 30, so you would need balls to hang on, but you'd be taking huge risk!!! Otherwise, there's no simple way.
  7. nitro



    The markets are open from 8:30 to 3:00 - that's 6 1/2 hours. The time segments given add up to 2 hours, approximately 1/3 of the time, or a 33% probability of seeing such a thing purely on a statistical basis. Add to that the question is "malformed" [what is a "reversal"? How would you spot one in that time frame, and in relation to what time frame? The 1 minute, the 3, the 5, etc?]

    So if you had as little as, oh say 36 students watching for these things randomly and reporting it, the odds would be almost 100% that some of them "would be amazed" when in fact it would simply be a random statitical event with no predictive capabilties.

    If you really believe in these things, test them. Take TS, and program this system in: get ADX and momentum over a 20 minute time frame, see if time is one of the times mentioned, and take the opposite direction. Use any money management you like. If it has a statistical edge, you should be profitable over say three years worth of data [don't use comm and slippage, you are just trying to see if there is a statistical bias.]

  8. nitro,

    Thanks for the analysis and suggestions. I am sure you are accurate.

    Unlike you, who has the mental capacity to view about 647 things going on at the same time...:) is all I can do to watch four or five things. I don't know why that is. As such, I have never tried to look at these times regularly. I'm sure I'd be one of the perpetually amazed ones....or perpetually dazed. :D

    Thanks for your input. Have a big week.

  9. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    You might want to try Bollinger Bands. I set mine really wide at 2.618 and length of 13 on a 3 minute chart.
    When they spike out is a good reversal signal when they finish walking the band. Try it :)
  10. Some of these times actually make some sense:

    1) 10:00 AM EST. Usually there is economic news announced at this time...and may well set the trend for the morning session. Whether it's a "reversal" though, or simply a continuation of what has already started would of course depend on the news.

    2) 12:00 Noon EST. The New Yorkers go to lunch! It seems to me that many times the market will reverse here, if only briefly, maybe because the New Yorkers liquidate positions prior to lunch. LOL. Trying to create a rationale here don't anyone post that New Yorkers don't go to lunch.

    3) 1:00PM EST. New Yorkers return from lunch. And in my opinion typically try to move prices the way they were going prior to lunch. If it doesn't work they take them the other way.

    4) 2:30-3:00 EST. Somewhere in this general time frame is the beginning of the last hour move. If there's going to be a move in the opposite direction, it may assert itself around this time.

    5) 3:30-4:00 EST. Sometime in this time frame there tends to be contra moves to the days trend where the daytraders who were right on things tend to close positions. Market tends to get buffeted a little right before 4PM when the daytraders have to close or get charged overnight margin.

    I don't know that anything could necessarily be systematized out of these times. But there are some rational reasons why something could happen at these times. For those that have been reading my posts though, you probably already know that my attitude would be you're better off watching the market for clues on what to do, than watching the clock.

    #10     Nov 10, 2002