Since you're a newbie, I will be honest with you: It's nonsense. There is no formula, system, or framework that can predict the market - anywhere in the world. Not even in Harrytrader's mind. There are plenty of systems though that have a hit/success rate of 100% over a sample size of 10-30 trades. That's really all that counts, is that over a certain number of trades, you're out ahead. Trying to find a way to predict the market will not only get you onto a grail run, it's also a great way to waste your time and life and throw away all the potential profits you could have made in the meantime, just exploiting probability (rather than prediction). All that said though, Harrytrader is a nice, intelligent and often very entertaining guy. And unlike many other people on this board, he doesn't flame, insult, diminish etc. Something worth noting indeed. Who gives a damn about Harry's framework. He wouldn't disclose it, just like I don't share mine (for good reasons). Stop wasting time looking for other's solutions, and find your own. There are many ways to skin a cat.
I doubt I will ever be since I said I will stop before 50 or at most 100 millions http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=451531 But don't worry I will continue to post in forum except if I get bored. BTW I get bored at the moment so as I said I will visit the Satanists group for 1 or 2 months
btw it's not a formula (I mean simplist-like camarilla) it's an ECONOMETRIC model (so CAUSAL, RATIONAL) which translates into DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS to solve. In that sense there is NO MAGIC it's about REASONING and I am against the hype pretending that the market is driven by the irrational crowd. Those who pretend that like Prechter are the ones who are irrational themselves see "Zoran Gayer against Robert Prechter : on the origin of Waves in Stock Market " http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=27512&highlight=zoran "The crowds may move the markets but they are <font color="red">not the instigators</font> of the trend they <font color="red">merely reactors</font> to what has happened. The twelve men in the monthly meeting of the central bankers (FOMC) have more effect than rest of the crowd combined. ... Crowds do very little than follow established trends."
I doubt he's socialist, I'm republican (not libertarian although I can sound like and although I baffle Bush because I don't recognise republican values in him with all the law against citizen liberties and all the debts and so future tax on the nation).
"and I am against the hype pretending that the market is driven by the irrational crowd." Harry, I think what you mean is, after the irrational crowd drives the market, it is not driven by the irrational crowd. That's when we close our trades. Sam
No, Harry is really a guy named "blderbergelitist" from the Yahoo message boards back in the late 90s. A good writer! gsr
I actually wish I could understand what you are saying...but my brain may never comprehend....but it sure does sound like the way I want to to learn how to trade.... Evaluating price and having choices based on probability is where its at baaaaby.... Michael B.
I'm saying that we are in economical domain, I'm saying that as in every economical domain, it's all about cost, benefit, offer and demand. It is so in petroleum field which I have partly drawn my inspiration from - as it was my second engineering school - it is in fact the first field which uses intensively operational research in mathematics to optimise their operations with linear programming matrix of several thousands and more of elements. In stock market it's very different in details but in the principle it's a kind of same thing: a monopolistic domain like in petroleum field.
Harry, probabilitically speaking, you are reversing into a Feynman bubble, with overtones of less than Jungian neuronal relationships, personality-wise. This introspected post-deconstructionist bible-studying you do is entertaining in the extreme, and answers many of the riddles posed by our quasi-technocratic loose consortium of econohobbits. With hindsight, the bread is stale though, and toast is most likely the intermediate/long term outcome of your brookesyan babblings. Wooly Mammoth. The rationale behind your conundrums is scintillating - as Adam Smith once said - "is there any more sugar?" and we all (with a single notable exception) remember well where THAT lead. Perhaps the single factor missing from your equations right now can best be summed up as "why are some croissants straight, while others are crescent shaped?" and no, the difference between butter and margarine is no more a causal factor than that Suft always places winning trades while wearing his purple paisley hawaiian stubbies. Keep it coming, little french dude!