i read the vast majority of the posts and it seems that 90% of you dont understand what drives price. Stock trader should be ashamed that just a few months ago he was saying "it is very probable that GOOG goes to $2000" I dont see anything to indicate that over the next few years this stock will go really anywhere. why? you need to do your own homework and learn what drives prices. the answer is not: 1. PR 2. stock split 3. fundamentals
There are several reasons why this stock is not moving... and yes, it DOES have to do with PR, Fundamentals, Splits... it's a culmination of reasons, that include those. But for a lot of people (including me), remembering Yahoo do the $105 to $5 dive in 3 months is enough to simply stay away. As for earnings, Google makes a fortune on placement and click throughs.... with no slowdown in sight. People think, Google is FREE, it's a search engine! How the hell does that business model make any $$, where's the ads? The ads are what you are pulling UP when you type in a search term, and it's so seamless and sneaky that you don't realize that a large chunk of your first page 'search' is PAID FOR ADS unless it's an obscure term with a keyword no one wants to buy. Everyone who has a website knows what click throughs are and what search engine placement is... it's big bucks, but all those bucks pass through Google first. If everyone loses money in the world, they're not going to change their search habits on the net, and actually, the UNEMPLOYED will spend MORE time on Google feeding their revenues than the employed. Google is nearly recession proof. But we should already know that reality is not what drives the market, fantasy and hype is a huge part of stock market pricing. Bottom line, Google isn't sexy.
I would say ENRON is one of the worst stocks ever. A stock like GOOG which moves like 50% a year hardly sucks lol. If the trumpet sounds bad it is not the instrument, it is the one playing it. GOOG works just fine....
Hels..You ABSOLUTELY hit the nail on the head. BUt there was one sentace that was wrong...the part where you said I was wrong. The reason that you stated is "perception", "fear" "not reality" "fantasy" "hype". you are DEAD on. and then you said "people wont stop using it and it will contuinue to make money". absolutely. so what you just said is that even though the fundies may continue to go on..that doesnt nesecarity drive stock price...right? remeber that fundies come AFTER percetion. they are backward looking. whether or not someone wants to splt thier stock or how great PR is is not ieven in the top 10 of the equation. what causes those numbers is perception, which creates demand, and demand by large institutions who have the money which drive up the price. bottom line...If google sexy? sexy enough to drive MORE money into it? THAT is the question.
Dac... really, it's the price... I won't pay $400 for a stock, let alone $450. It reminds me of Qualcomm in 1999 *shudder*. THAT's why it's not sexy... flashbacks. LOL!
Who cares if it is contracting. Its not priced for 70% growth right now - its priced for 25-30% !!! The way people talk here, you'd swear its priced for 0% growth to declines (170 price target? hahah) Take a look at Pepsico or Boeing or most any defensive dow component with near 2-6% growth rates, and you'll see that google is dirt cheap (and SAFE) in comparison. Most of these dow components are TWICE as expensive. Lastly, youtube's negative price effect on the stock should be considered a short to gift to buyers. People need to realize youtube is an experimental trade on google's behalf, and that it was paid for by a month or two of cash flow. People trade google like it is actually youtube. This earnings call will be beautiful - probably perfectly coinciding with the end of this current iteration of overall market correction (2 months from beginning, just like May 06's move). forward PE of 32 against 07, forward PE of 24 against 08 - with 30% growth rate annualized estimated over the next 5 years. Nearly a PEG of 1 or slightly under. Look at a stock like Boeing, or any oil stock, and you'll see they are MUCH more expensive. Furthermore, google's move from 80 to 458 over the last few years is also no big deal, considering their growth rate. It gets so much talk on price, but this move is dwarfed by relative moves of airlines and oil minors from lows during the past few years. Google's 'cheapness' is a market tell that people don't care for stocks, right now at least. Google needs to use that cash and start drilling for oil or acquire a gas/oil minor and pay a dividend from oil revenues. Then suddenly people would love it again - it would be a value stock with a 30% annual growth rate. There's nothing 'bubble' about google or its price.