is gold leading the sell-off?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by random flyer, Jan 28, 2011.

  1. and other commodities will follow or is it that this is a flight out of precious metals into the sp?
  2. if gold was a stock....

    it would be pretty boring
  3. It is probably flight out of gold and silver ETF stocks and investing the money in tech stocks.
  4. Anyone who believes gold will continue to drop believed Obama's speech.
  5. Why all the bias and bravado about a trade? I'm sure you are fine until $280.
  6. Trend follower selling
  7. Don't get me wrong. It's merely an investment in raw materials for when I need replacement teeth.
  8. GOLD and SILVER gave a sell signal a while back and CRUDE and COPPER did so this week.

    The equity correction is getting closer in my opinion.
  9. Yes Gold + Silver gave warnings couple of weeks ago.

    Gold + Silver daily chart has now gone sideways while a right hand shoulder develops on the possble head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart.

    Weekly indicators still warn of significant Gold and Silver downside.
  10. Gold took off about a month before stocks did, so it definitely lead the advance.
    The action for the past couple of weeks has been really awful: the dollar fell, but gold fell even more rather than rising. Friday's bounce looks like just a technical bounce from way way oversold, and it got kind of squishy after midday, which means there weren't even enough shorts for a good covering rally before the weekend: not a good sign. So, barring follow-through next week, I think it's at least entered a bearish phase. If history repeats, even kinda sorta, stocks are due next.
    Gold may drop 10% from the peak, but stocks I don't think would drop more than 5%. There was already a nice little correction last year to make everyone nervous, so with that memory still reasonably fresh it won't take much from here to get all the doomsayers riled up. Once they're frothing, it'll be time to buy.
    More significantly for gold, it looks like it wants to start again being negatively correlated to stocks, rather than vice versa, which would be more normal behavior for it. If times are returning to something resembling normal, which they appear to be doing, then this would be expected stuff. It would also mean a true bear in gold is probably getting ready to start in the second half of this year, when I expect stocks would be rising again.
    Definitely something I'm watching.
    #10     Jan 29, 2011