Trading currencies is like riding a tiger. If you tell or ask people, they will tell you that you are nuts for wanting to ride such a dangerous beast as a tiger. What can you do? Go ride your tiger anyway and let them naysayers behind riding their donkeys.
That is AWESOME! I agree with Deptrai with regards to the % of people who fail in the FX game. When i started all i could think of was the odds, and i thought about it alot. Right now i am giving it my best shot with nothing but success on my mind.
I have probably a stupid question about "many who would be break even". I did the following test: Euro/USD hourly chart from june till now (approx 3300 hours of data). The computer choose at random trades to be generated. For each test there were approx 1600 trades. The length of each trade was 3 hours. At random the computer divided the trades between 50% shorts and 50% longs. So the final result should be about 0. I did this test 30 times and added up the results. For this simulation there would have been a total profit of 46257 pips for the 30 test (or 1542 pips per 1600 trades). In total approx 48000 trades were generated. If now you add a commission of 0.0003 the final result would be -3342 pips per set of 1600 trades; if i take 0.0002 the final result would be -1714 pips per set of 1600 trades. So i don't understand how statistically you can get to your statement. Can someone explain me what i did wrong? Or am i perhaps right? PS: I don't want to be a hero (or Rambo) that fights the most difficult markets. I prefer to trade in the markets that give me the best returns with the smallest risc and the smallest efforts if possible. I'm not a macho.
That's how you know it won't be. If we were to believe the media, shouldn't the EUR be at 1.50 by now? That's what they told us last year. They also said 90 yen, sterling over 2.00, and a .82 aussie. Riiiight.
Only fulltime and only FX. 1,2, and 3. What is important is that the op and other newbies realize that forex is very difficult. Respect the forex market. You are a fisherman and the forex market is the ocean. Never think that you are bigger than the ocean. If you do, then the ocean will wipe you out as it has done to so many.
Market is definitely not random. In fact, it is more like the opposite: the market IS out to get you. If not you, it's someone else; if not now, it's later on. Keep doing the same thing, and eventually you will get caught. Start from this principle and you will go much further than anywhere the concept of "random" can take you.
Here is one of Spike500's post. This will enlighten the op and other newbies. As you can see, I am not the only one with experience who knows that forex trading is very difficult. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=54957&perpage=6&pagenumber=11
YeahIKnow, Don't spend your time worrying about the percentage of people who fail/succeed trading forex. Just because it's hard for most people doesn't mean that you can't trade it successfully. You just have to trade it and figure out if it's right for you. Personally, I find FX (specifically Euro futures) the easiest thing to trade, but that's because this is the instrument that best suits me. Out of all of the futures instruments, Euro futures are the only one that I've consistently made money trading(daytrading) and I use nothing more than trendlines, support/resistance, and a moving average. One thing to keep in mind though, never daytrade around economic data releases. Good luck to you.
Exactly, that's what i meant with my PS in a previous posting. Trade only markets that are easy FOR YOU to trade. Don't bother what others think about it. Trading should be very easy; if it's not to you then you should ask yourself if that market is suited for you. A difficult or dangerous market is a market that YOU can't handle; for each person this can be different. PS: Never think that the market is trying to catch you, because that is a lousy excuse for your personal failure. For most people their own ego is so important that they always have to find someone or something else to blaim for the failure.
Well I started FX since September. I found the 24 hours trading of FX very difficult. My boss/mentor told me that he always setup his trade (entry,stop and take profit) then walk away and almost never change the setup. That's the way he deals with 24 hours trading. As a newbie, I just couldnt do what he taught me because I dont have the same level of confidence with my setup as he does with his. The only way to increase your confidence is to increase your knowledge about the market. By the way, I'm a trader trainee at a FX firm in NY. All the trader trainees at my firm are in the red. Yes, this is the fact none of us make any money yet.