Is Forecasting Methodology of David Williams (Reflected Wave, etc.) any good?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jreality, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. Jreality


    The reason I'm asking is because another trader claims to have a proprietary ES forecast that helps him swing trade the ES, but he won't tell anyone the methodology. He only wants paid subscribers. The other person claims it is based on the work of another trader but he won't tell anyone who it was.

    Even though this other trader won't tell me anything about the methodology , it sounds, to me like this other trader might be basing his work on whatever methodology David Williams uses.

    This other trader admits that his own forecast isn't perfect, but it keeps him on the right side of the market swings most of the time. This other trader claims his own forecast is not based on analyzing past price or volume action. He claims that once a forecast is made for a particular day it never changes. It supposedly is based on something that is a very unconventional indicator, and it is based on something very unique. He says it is not based on Bradley, or Astrology, or COT Data, and it doesn't involve Neural Networks.

    Since I'm suspecting this other trader's work could be based on David Williams' work, I just wanted to ask if anyone knows anything about David Williams methodology and whether it is helpful with swing trading. Also, is David Williams' methodology only good for ES? The other trader claims he has a unique forecast for other instruments than ES, including commodities. However, I find it hard to believe that the other trader has a unique forecast for unique instruments without analyzing past price action of those specific instruments.

    Anyway, here is a link to a page discussing David William's seminar. I know it sounds like it could be a scam (don't laugh), and I would suspect it doesn't work as well as claimed. I'm not endorsing it in any way, and I'm not planning on signing up. I'm just looking for any info that anyone may have on this particular methodology, and if it is any good. Thanks.
  2. toc


    Brings us back to 100 year old trading question: if it is sooooooo good then why is he selling it? why not trade and become a billionaire!

    :D :cool: :p
  3. I'm sure it's BS. Read the reviews. Sounds like they're full of ambiguity there.

    "Gurus" love ambiguty.

    Price cannot be predicted, especially not with the accuracy they are claiming.
  4. Jreality


    I do have a feeling that the forecast is likely a scam. As originally mentioned, the reason I got curious about this, is a certain other trader claimed to have a similar method to predict turns in the S&P. Supposedly the method didn't involve analyzing past price action, and supposedly once the forecast is made it doesn't change. This other trader was (and still is) selling a subscription to his own forecast for $30 a month, as well as a managed ES trading system where he tells you exactly when to get in and out (and when to put in a stop loss, etc.), and he charges a 5% management fee. It turns out the manaaged ES system lost 20% last year....oops!....(and I don't believe it includes the management fee either...OUCH!)....I guess predicting the market isn't an exact science after all. LOL

    Granted, this other trader's system supposedly worked great for 7 years in a row before losing 20% in 2012....but...hey...if this other trader could predict the future so well, then why couldn't he predict that his own system would lose 20% in 2012 and just take the opposite of every trade or stay in cash!....LOL
  5. evolution of a guru:

    usually overweight, lazy, and skill set limited.

    does blog or bad looking website, since broke and can't afford programmer.

    is desperate, so gets sim account and lies and lies and lies until they get some suckers.

    then convinces themselves they offer value.

    realizes the entire game is marketing, not trading.....since they know they can't trade.

    experiments with price structures, etc.....anything. fake everything...who cares if they get sued for 100k, they only have about 5k left after inheritance...

    more crap, more lies, more smoke-and-mirrors and lies......

    and then just need a few complete idiots to give them money....

    and they all bash other gurus and anyone who says they lance Armstrong......

    I think you are lazy and stupid if you must rely on someone else to trade, or care how they trade.

    this is an excuse to fail....blame someone else.

    I made 6 figures last year investing, not trading....but I could call it swing-trading and create a fake system around what I did.....when in actuality I had cash to risk and just waited and didn't worry too much about it.

    like selling a book on how you picked your lottery tickets (from a computer)........
  6. Thor


    Anyone can forecast highs and lows. How accurate is he?
    Does the high/low turn out to be the opposite 70% of the time?
    Having the time of a low is useless on it's own.

    If you know there is a low coming at 11:15 and a high at 11:30, that is no surety of making money since the high and low may be only a few cents apart. :D
    In a trend all those highs and lows get washed out.
  7. pspr


    It's always a scam unless you can find someone you trust who has tried it and says otherwise.

    Bottom line -> Scam until proven otherwise. Let someone else try it. If it's really good you will hear about it.
  8. Jreality


    It's funny that you should mention that forecasting just the direction might not be all that great (assuming you can even do that with accuracy) The other trader (the one who I suspected might have derived his forecasting method from David Williams) used to post his ES forecast for free on his website, and then he started charging $30 for it. A friend of mine subscribed at one point (a year or 2 after he charged for it) and used to send the paid forecast to me. Frankly, I could never trade off of it.

    The general idea of this other trader's forecast, was that the forecast was supposed to predict direction of the market, and not necessarily the price, per se, although you look at the chart of the forecast and see that it is predicting a larger move over, say, the next few days, than the previous few days. The big problem was that the forecast would sometimes "invert" meaning it goes into a mode where it predicted the exact opposite direction of what it is supposed to predict. (surprise, surprise.....LOL). Then, this person would say, the forecast inverted but it was correct in predicting a large move...LOL. And he would then say things like..."if the forecast inverts, then ES will probably go up to test resistance at 1275 instead of going down test support at 1225. LOL! Also, he claimed the forecast inverted less than it was correct. Like, maybe it inverted 40% of the time and was correct 60% of the it supposedly wasn't useless. LOL

    The bottom line is that I found it impossible to trade off of, even when the forecast was given to me for free, and even though this person said his forecast is the closest thing in trading to the Holy Grail and he is very thankful for the trader (David Williams???) who originally showed him how to make the forecast.

    F**K's the website of the "genius" with the forecast. You decide if it's worth paying him $30 a month for a forecast or a 5% management fee for his ES "Freedom System" system. LOL
  9. Thor


    The dates forecasts have about 40%-50% accuracy. The way to trade them is to wait till the market confirms the date with a reversal and then jump on.
    If Williams was predicting price it could be worth it.

    There was a high 3 days ago followed by a low, and another high coming up 5 days from today.
    Is the high that's coming, going to be higher or lower than the last high? Is it the final top for the stock? :D
    What is the size of the next range?
    Anyone teaching this..... :D
    #10     Mar 25, 2013