Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Bushido, Oct 12, 2008.
An attempt to quantify the question in the title, be honest!!
Wouldn't it be difficult to say as there are almost always a considerable difference of viewpoints? Wouldn't the majority need to be in agreement across the entire forum before it could be used as a contrarian indicator?
I would say no.
StockTrad3r is the ultimate contrarian indicator, his calls can be faded with impunity!
if the No's win and we all know 95% of traders lose, does that mean it is a contrarian indicator?
Well if 'no' wins then that would support the consensus that ET is a contrarian indicator. The logic behind this is while a lot of people here believe and have done so for a while that ET is a contrarian indicator. This has been true on a number of instances, and all around the board debates keep coming up if this is true.
Though the reason I thought it would be a worthwhile poll is to see if a majority of the voters (considering a majority of traders fail, have never traded/troll the boards) vote Yes, then that could be a change in the trend and reduce the unquantified effectiveness of ET as a contrarian indicator.
Most people (unlike StockTrad3r) usually try being correct and get accepted in a community, an awareness of the fact that they can be potential contrarian indicators, will increase the chances of second guessing their initial gut, wishful thinking and can also reduce the number of predictions.
As far as the 95% figure is concerned, personally I believe a majority of them never find their style, hence they can't be classified as "failed".
Well crap, he just got bullish again! Dow to 500!
I strangely am introduced to many different economic theories than my own on ET and am often convinced to change my opinion to a better opinion I hear.
I do think there is a lot of noise on this forum, but I do read some pretty good stuff once in a while and I feel like the stuff I tend to believe is usually right despite not being my original idea.
11-5. That's almost a fibonacci ratio! :eek:
For you guys who think ET is an indicator at all, (contrarian or not), what is the ET indicator saying right now?
Separate names with a comma.