Serious question. The vast majority of posts on here are from the same group of cynical, sometimes manic permabears trying to sell the same stories every week. Even in a week with rising markets and tremendous earnings reports, we get more of the same. Serious traders, whether generally bullish or bearish, look at sectors and equities for trends, and try to guage the normal ebb and flow of markets. They don't just take an emotional stance and bet the house on a huge downdraft in the entire market. In recent months, the trend on here has got worse. Nothing but short sellers predicting monster drops not just in sectors or equities, but in the entire market. For many, they are predicting a complete collapse of the US in every facit of life. Some posters like Bearice/S2007S/Grand Super Cycle seem almost insane to me. I just can't relate. In Canada, we have rising GDP and large profits in many sectors ( including banks ). People are a lot more optimistic about our future then most of the Americans on this site. There is no housing crisis, and our unemployment rate is much lower then in the US. We have less people in jails and far less crime. Our governments have debt but nothing like California. Our nucleur reactors are safe. On the other hand, recent US market performance and earnings suggest that Elitetrader may be way off the mark. Which makes me question this site as a trading forum. No exaggeration, but 90% of the recommendations for trades that people make here are losing trades. Perhaps the emotional cynics just aren't good traders. I posted something along these lines last summer and was berated by an administrator for not posting trading ideas myself. So I did post a few trading ideas this winter, and the vast majority of them were huge winners, even if I was berated repeatably by cynics after I posted them. Even after indicating I'm not a permabull at all ( I short equites when the time is right ), the regulars on here just can't stand seeing any trades trying to profit from strong international companies. So I'm coming back against that administrator now. You were wrong. There is something inherently wrong with your site. There is no room for posting good trading ideas because its become a cesspool of cynical people thinking the world's going down the financial toilet. If I were a sponsor, I'd pull given the severe lack of quality information on this site. The jokers are running your site, perhaps this is the goal just to be an entertainmant diversion for unsuccessful traders. The proof is in the content we've seen over the last month.
I'd never get trading advice from a free forum; it's just a community site. Live and let live. Enjoy!
I think in year 1970, Gold price was high. That same time there was serious risk of USA - Russia War. USA population is 5% of world population and USA economy is 20% of world economy. So USA factors and problems will not result is major change in Gold price. Other major world events are increasing Gold price. Gold is accepted/valued by all 192 countries. High gold price are indicators/signals of Wars. With rising ''food inflation'' yes it's a precursor to war and social chaos like in middle east. All wars have economics as the reason for the war. Gold had reached $1513 per ounce today.
Serious answer within the context of the Herding Instinct - as a market continues and continues up and up, the general trading populace becomes more and more convinced that its a paradigm shift and that this will continue forever; that indeed it is a whole new ballgame. That is the HERD mentality i.e. extrapolating an extant condition to infinity. There is no better definition for the Herd Instinct. Within this group there are dissenters and disbelievers and like you stated, cynics - these too perish as the market persists upward and towards the frothy end only a couple or very very few remain and even they have a hard time dissenting and expressing their cautionary stance for if voiced openly, they get ridiculed and stoned - and often, guess what, they are wrong as the market continues its upward push. But HISTORY easily answers who the real losers are - 95% of said HERD lose and lose consistently i.e. they give it all back and then some. Therefore it is proven that the only ones who win and make money consistently are the ones who get out in time thus saving a lot of their hard earned gains. Its a beautiful thing to aspire to be a part of such a small group of individuals. A worthy quest. Doesn't mean we are going to make it, but it most certainly is worth a solid effort for however long it takes. It is the easiest thing in the world to be a part of the HERD, like you Mr. Nine Ender. It requires no effort, no real intelligence, just the instinct to run with the gang, do what they do and think as they do, in fact act as ONE. Try the other side for a change. The real skill is in not just being a dissenter or contrarian, rather to develop the skill to know when to ride with the HERD (the middle part of the bullrun) and when to start separating oneself from THEM (within the frothy part of the final part where the TREND bends). As you can easily see, many contrarians, if they succeed will get off the TREND way before the top and will be ridiculed for even that (despite being hugely profitable) - some will get off within weeks of the top and maybe only a handful will catch the top within 2 weeks of it. IMO still highly worth it to try to acquire such skills even if one dies trying. Death to a true contrarian is infinitely superior to being a HERD member.
How would you like the community to be? You can make a difference in how you post. It starts today. As a moderator I can only watch for spam, that is my job. As a trader I can post what I know and my experience, journey or opinion...I do not have to be cynical and prejudge every new poster here as being a novice. Everyone has something to contribute. I took a break from EliteTrader for some time and I now enjoy it much more after returning. I have realized that I know what I know and nobody can take that away from me. I have discovered that what everybody else says is not necessarily correct. You cannot hang on every word here in this forum as being gospel. Actually I am discovering many things are opposite from what the "sound good" posts preach. Also, I have recently become profitable again...finally! Being consistently profitable has not been long though and I know if I lose my edge that I will need to start over, but I am confident that I know when to stop trading and it is no longer my obsession to be in the market. Some days just do not work. I withdraw 50% of my profits monthly and let the rest ride... For those of you that know me, it has been quite a roller coaster ride for me...Jesse Livermore had so many things correct, but his end is not what I want to mirror. I have resolved that the time I have wasted making money and losing money in the markets has been a net loser for me, because of the time I have wasted. I could never get that back...ok perhaps I could make a lot of money to compensate...but time is hard to regain. Make ET what it can be...make your trading and your words mean something to you and maybe to others. All the best... ES
Some of the best threads/discussions in human history have been started in elitetrader. Read economics section. But some moderators have destroyed elitetrader. I am trying hard to bring back old and new viewers/readers for elitetrader but I am not receiving any help from Baron.
Unbeknownst to him or apparently anybody else, he gave us the answer very recently when he gave in and started making some small changes. Look for what preceeded this galactic change in stance? Use a clearly visible TAMPON and then approach him again. Sorry, but I can't help you in this regard; a man's got to draw the line somewhere, even nowadays aka these days with the high prevalence of exits becoming entrances and whatnot.