Is DOW 11,000 A Bull Trap?"

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Apr 9, 2010.

SPY Next Week

  1. Bullish

    37 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. Flat

    14 vote(s)
    12.6%
  3. Bearish

    42 vote(s)
    37.8%
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    18 vote(s)
    16.2%
  1. AA is halted AH: expecting good news
     
    #41     Apr 12, 2010
  2. What do we have for today's winner Johnny. That's right a genuine simulated Indian Beaver Fur....and a baby's arm holding an apple.
     
    #42     Apr 12, 2010
  3. Today has eerie similarities to the start of the previous earning season. On both days we got a filled black candle and VIX totally crapped out reaching multi-year low (a very unusual event considering the small advance SPY had).

    Also, in both cases AA misses earnings projections a bit after the close.

    In addition in both cases we had huge run-ups in the prior ~2 months. Also, the investors are totally bullish with the sentiment hovering at multi-year high.

    Is this the sign that we will finally have a negative week? Is it possible for the top to unfold in exactly the same manner in two different earning seasons?


    p.s.
    my paranoid mind adamantly refuses to believe this is a good sign for the bears. it insists that the similarities are just too obvious and the tape is painted to trap more naive bears.

    is Dr. Thorndyke in the house?


    [​IMG]
     
    #43     Apr 12, 2010
  4. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Excluding special items amounting to 29 cents, the company had a profit of 10 cents per share, which was the consensus of Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, even though they expected $5.238 billion in revenue.
     
    #44     Apr 12, 2010
  5. last time they missed something, and beat something else as i recall. i don't remember exactly what was missed and beat. i interpret the previous report as analogous to today's report as far as beating/missing expectations.
     
    #45     Apr 12, 2010
  6. if the market chooses to follow Jan scenario exactly we will have a gap down tomorrow, followed by bounces until next Mon when the real sell-off occurs. i personally don't believe the market will repeat the same multi-step pattern exactly. but we may have a gap down tomorrow:
    E-mini S&P 500 (Dollar) Jun 10 1189.50 -3.00
    E-mini NASDAQ-100 Jun 10 1987.50 -5.00
     
    #46     Apr 12, 2010
  7. 1. That line of BS is from a song by The Tubes. Not too original. I much prefer "Talk To Ya Later". You know, I have every confidence YOU can relate to it.

    2. 280 posts this year. Whoa. Is there some kind of prize involved?

    3. Since I'm here, the 20 day average true range on SPY (pretty good proxy for "the market") is the tightest it's been since February 26, 2007. 3 years. A little broadER measure than the VIX (whose computation was changed a few years back). Nevertheless, gonna get a move soon. Direction remains to be seen.


    4. Today's range, a mere 50 cents. Lowest I've seen since when?

    5. $120 is a nice round number and that Lehman gap down was long ago filled. Hmmm.

    6. It's also expiration week, which generally has an upward bias.

    7. That dog United Parcel Service (a reasonable proxy for the Transports) broke to a 55 day high and.......it's been UP (8) consecutive days. What's the statistical probability of that?

    8. Oh yeah, earnings season is upon us. That four time per year cess pool of propoganda and catalysts. Specialists LUV it.
     
    #47     Apr 12, 2010
  8. you are not convinced we are going down (not convinced enough to anticipate the move). you were not convinced in Jan either. as a consequence you probably missed a decent chunk of the move down because half of the move down happened in two days. do you think a similar sharp move may happen this time as well?

    not criticizing your approach, it is good to have a solid system/rules and stick to it.
     
    #48     Apr 13, 2010
  9. Look I'm not claiming anything. Yes you win the prize--The Tubes. Which if you read any of my posts has been prolifically and prodigously recorded as 4/19. Whatever I'm still thinkin' it's lookin' like a legit call. and yes the markets goin' down the Tubes.

    So as any good hockey player or pit trader would say go f7ck yourself and take the otherside of the trade.
     
    #49     Apr 13, 2010
  10. a tiny gap that was filled but the market is dropping -0.6%. if we do have a decent red day, i would say we are still following Jan scenario.
     
    #50     Apr 13, 2010