Is DOW 11,000 A Bull Trap?"

Here is what I see. I am not an options expert.

 

i use this calculator for option pain:
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

several times i looked before, max pain did not work. maybe the reason is that if it is too far from the current price than it is unlikely to get there (just like to any other distant point).

 

Correct -- gamma hedging is irrelavant too far from max pain.

 

So I got whacked with this algo trading all this week. But, now I'm back. I am shorting heavily 1210-1205 on S&P and anything in the 11100-11090 range in YM. Target 1160 in ES. HUGE short inventory in YM, it's screaming at me.

 

in a related story:

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I am going Long NTDOY (Nintendo stock)

 

Some day one of you is going to be right. The rest of you will be in the poorhouse.

 

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh looks like I won't get a chance to get those higher prices, ES is already down 5 after hours. We will see what Europe brings.

 

Guys, I believe THE downleg is in progress. Thursday morning, overseas markets rejected Wednesday's US rally, and the US decided not to persist rallying. My 50% cash position says we don't go higher.

 

is this the beginning of the end for the bulls? i would like to see at least one red day just to make sure there is some blood in the market and not just silicon.

the last IRAs got funded today. there are probably no natural buyers left in this market since mutual funds have been running the lowest on cash since 1987. :eek:

E-mini S&P 500 (Dollar) Jun 10 1202.50 -6.00
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Jun 10 2025.50 -9.25

 

FIVE REASONS TO SHORT THIS MARKET:

1. The dow is approaching the 200 per moving average on the weekly chart.

2. The last time this happened was the summer of '08, when it broke through on the downside and collapsed.

3. There is heavy short interest in the SPY's and Q's, and I believe they're getting whacked by the quant funds who are squeezing them out on low volume.

4. The Q's had trouble holding 50 the last time, yet the TV people were still saying "buy buy buy", and we all know what happened after that.

5. Those with patience will nail the top. The market has gaps below, and they WILL fill eventually. It will be evident in hindsight, but for those who can take the pain now...revenge is yours!