Is Doug Kass getting a margin call?

doug kass capitulating? when long term bears throw in the towel after a huge run it used to be a danger signal:


I am going to make today's opening missive brief, but my message is significant.
The reality is that over the past 12 months I have been far too cautious and dogmatic in my ursine outlook.
I moved too far off the reservation and stuck to my views even as cyclical economic conditions changed. (One doesn't have to look much beyond the ISM strength to support the statement that domestic growth has improved markedly.)
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I for one will take advantage of opportunities that are presented in a correction ... on the long side.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11028755/2/kass-mea-culpa.html

 

I wonder if the hoard of permabears on this site will ever understand that the economic conditions have strengthened a ton since 2009.

Markets are going to continue rising this year. They will do so because fundamentals and related valuations support it. Reading ET, you'd think a bunch of posters have been living in a time machine since February 2009 ( where they get no news and in particular earnings reports are to be ignored at all cost ).

I have noted that permabears are a persistant group I hesitate to think how much money they are losing but it doesn't stop a bunch of them from throwing out the same tired old ideas nonstop for many months at a time no matter how wrong they are.

 

Sort of how the permabulls were carried out of the game in 2007-2008.

 

Kudos for Doug for admitting he was wrong. Most pundits won't.

 

Im sure he is right, his timing will be off!!!!

Doug Kass: Market Generating Definitive Sell Signal
Published: Wednesday, 2 Mar 2011 | 6:40 PM ET
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By: Lee Brodie
Producer


We know why you like Fast Money; the desk brings you a wide range of trading ideas from some of the Street's most celebrated figures.

On Wednesday the Fast traders turned to strategic investor and CNBC contributor Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners for his insights.

Kass is widely followed for his market timing. He correctly called a bottom last summer and also predicted the crisis lows in March 2009.

In a live interview we asked Kass about the sell-off, Yahoo! and a company that Warren Buffett may want to buy. As you can imagine he had lots of ideas. They all follow:

Market Generating Definitive Sell Signal

It’s no secret that Kass is bearish, he’s been skeptical of the rally for quite some time. And he remains convinced that the market is heading lower. He cites both fundamental and technical signals.

Looking at fundamentals, he thinks Street estimates are too high broadly because “energy prices will maintain at elevated levels and commodities prices are rising.”

In other words, he doesn’t think price targets take into account the ripple from higher oil. “Already we’re seeing sequential rate of growth and operating profits slowing.”

And Kass thinks technical signals are equally negative. Kass points to the Farrell Sentiment Index to support his thesis.

This technical measure “takes the number of bulls in the market (as reported by the American Assoc of Individual Investors) and divides by the bears plus half the neutrals,” explains Kass.

”When the ratio is under .50 and rising it’s a bullish signal. When it’s over 1.5 it’s bearish and the ratio rose to 1.50 on the week of January 14th – a definitive sell signal,” says Kass.