When I did basic training an instructor told us about a particular guy in one of the world wars who went through the most impenetrable defences, the way he described it was a little like the movie The Day After Tomorrow where Cruzer loops a day until he has it down perfect, pretty much every time loop genre film really. But he asked us what made this man special. Some said luck and he said perhaps but really, if you start with enough troops there is going to be one that defies the odds. Like trading, an outlier is expected. I've always seen Trump as this, he just fit the mould better than others due to his own unique life circumstances. Not a hero, not even lucky just the outlier. But I don't have superstition, it's statistics and the run won't last forever.
I agree with your post except for the part about his not being lucky. Were it not for his old man, whose connections and money saved him from himself several times over, he wouldn't even have enough money for the requisite plaid jacket of a used car salesman. If he had been born poor, my money says that he would have pursued a life of crime. He already had the sociopathy and the lack of focus. And it would have been a short-lived career without a gaggle of lawyers bailing him out time and again.
You certainly struggled with the question yourself. So when did you realize it and what took you so long if it was so "obvious"?
Well my view on luck is a little different being Irish I sometimes have to explain to people that actually "Luck of the Irish" is a label the English attached to explain to themselves why a bunch of thickies had better outcomes than the English anticipated fairly often. I always say that luck favours the well prepared. Trump had enough daddy neglect/abuse narcissism and family influence to attract some horrible but still remarkable mentors. Plus the money, plus the sister judge and such. He absolutely figured out how to wrap many blue collar workers around his finger in construction etc. His general intelligence, perhaps a 120 IQ on his best day much younger a Harvard professor friend told me but tenacity like a pizza rat. Dyslexia is a cognitive problem I sense he has always had but he flim-flammed his way along and perhaps that contributed to his slipperyness. He is not a man who is fond of written business communication. Spelling errors all the time etc. What's always saved him was I believe that his mentors, who were and also prosecuted mobsters, drilled into him to never have a paper trail.
But that's the thing. What preparation? When was Trump ever prepared? He flies seat-of-the-pants all the time, and then morphs whatever negative result invariably ensues with an interpretation of victory. And it is only his devotees, who are even more stupid than he is, that believe his alternate universe. So is he well-prepared or is he just willing to go as low as there is to go? Were it not for them, his luck would have run out before he even reached middle age. The man is feral, sociopathic, and a narcissist. He has no boundaries. None. He makes up for a lack of intelligence with opportunism at any cost to anyone other than himself. I think we probably agree with one another in substance about this asshole.
On substance yes. I guess one could put it as Trump was a key that fit best, Bannon, the Mercers and such had to wiggle and file a bit but... Narcissists are often just annoyingly successful at other people's expense. They are often very happy with wealth they got and absolutely don't deserve. People tend to give those who have, or appear to have, more. The old "man with a million dollar bill" or whatever movie effect and Trump exploited that. No conscience works, though in a smaller community he would have been imprisoned and killed. What bugs me is how his followers see him as having a supernatural aura of teflon. Teflon gets fucked up soon enough. If you mind it very carefully it can last a long time but it flakes off eventually. I am reminded as I howled at our cleaner for putting a hot ceramic-whatever frying pan under a cold tap just last week. She thinks I'm a monster now.
Because I lived in the Northeast during his casino days, I followed the creep and his misadventures. He has ALWAYS been a loser. From the New York Times, 2016: In an August 1990 report, New Jersey regulators noted the “sheer volume of debt” on Mr. Trump’s holdings: $3.4 billion, including $1.3 billion on the casinos and $832.5 million in loans personally guaranteed by Mr. Trump. Regulators warned then that “the possibility of a complete financial collapse of the Trump Organization was not out of the question.” The Taj Mahal missed its November debt payment. The Castle was also late. By December 1990, when Mr. Trump needed to make an $18.4 million interest payment, his father, Fred C. Trump, sent a lawyer to the Castle to buy $3.3 million in chips, to provide him with an infusion of cash. The younger Mr. Trump made the payment, but the Casino Control Commission fined the Castle $65,000 for what had amounted to an illegal loan. As all of his ventures neared collapse, Mr. Trump’s lenders insisted that he submit a business plan, appoint a chief financial officer for the Trump Organization and sell, among other things, the Trump Shuttle airline, his yacht and his stake in New York City’s Plaza Hotel, which also filed for bankruptcy protection.
My grown up daughter has said a few times to the effect that "Trump's appearance in 2016 bothered daddy like the purple dong". Obviously that requires some context... I still wince..