Is Deepseek a Black Swan event?

Discussion in 'Artificial Intelligence' started by zdreg, Jan 28, 2025.

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Is Deepseek a Black Swan event?

  1. Yes

    4 vote(s)
    22.2%
  2. No

    13 vote(s)
    72.2%
  3. Maybe

    1 vote(s)
    5.6%
  1. metfa

    metfa

    I had to give my phone#, SSN, and DOB to sign up to test it. Good thing I have LifeLock.
     
    #21     Jan 29, 2025
  2. So this proved to be BS. Maybe for NVDA for now, but the entire market is just too unstoppable to care.
     
    #22     Jan 30, 2025
  3. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    DeepSeek is considered a potential "Black Swan" event by some market analysts due to its sudden and disruptive emergence in the AI industry. This unexpected development, characterized by its low cost and high efficiency, is seen as a significant threat to established companies like Nvidia and has caused notable market reactions, including a sell-off in tech stocks and AI-related cryptocurrencies. This market impact underscores the potential of DeepSeek to reshape the AI landscape and influence economic sectors globally
    beincrypto
    .
     
    #23     Jan 30, 2025
  4. vztrdr

    vztrdr

    1 year ago... and right as always.

    :sneaky:
     
    #24     Jan 30, 2025
  5. ph1l

    ph1l


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2025
    #25     Jan 30, 2025
  6. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    That guy had absolutely no evidence and looks like technically is not even competent to judge DeepSeek. His only argument is, the Chinese lied before. Well, so did Musk or any US start up.

    Anyhow, even if DeepSeek uses 100 times more chips than they claim, they are still spending at least a magnitude LESS, than their US competitors. So the truth is probably somewhere in between, but in practical tests, DeepSeek was sleek.
     
    #26     Jan 31, 2025
  7. ph1l

    ph1l

    Yeah, maybe "this time it's different.:p

    I guess if Elon Musk can lie, it's a good idea to base your financial decisions on claims that need approval from the CCP.:rolleyes:
    https://www.promptfoo.dev/blog/deepseek-censorship/
     
    #27     Jan 31, 2025
  8. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    American A.I. is Great Again!

    USA! USA! USA!
     
    #28     Jan 31, 2025
  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    I didn't say they didn't lie. I said:

    1. The guy didn't prove it.
    2. Even if they spent 600 mill on it, that is still 10% what American companies are spending on it.

    Or help me out, that 500 Billion Stargate project is how many times more than 600 million? :)
     
    #29     Jan 31, 2025
  10. ph1l

    ph1l

    The video referenced this.
    https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/a-few-thoughts-on-deepseek
    That doesn't prove anything either, but there is evidence.
    https://www.ft.com/content/a0dfedd1-5255-4fa9-8ccc-1fe01de87ea6


    So, yes, if DeepSeek took shortcuts such as repackaging something else, it would cost a lot less than other AI developments.

    My conclusion is the hype about DeepSeek might be too good to be true.
     
    #30     Jan 31, 2025