Is Deepseek a Black Swan event?

Discussion in 'Artificial Intelligence' started by zdreg, Jan 28, 2025.

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Is Deepseek a Black Swan event?

  1. Yes

    4 vote(s)
    22.2%
  2. No

    13 vote(s)
    72.2%
  3. Maybe

    1 vote(s)
    5.6%
  1. zdreg

    zdreg

    The market is not as efficient as you believe or it was an outlier event.
     
    #11     Jan 28, 2025
  2. Amazing how it was a one day wonder like it always is.
     
    #12     Jan 28, 2025
  3. notagain

    notagain

    Deep hype was not supposed to have those advanced chips.
    Without overriding our right to privacy AI would not be possible, we're training our replacements.
     
    #13     Jan 28, 2025
  4. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    You can't judge it based on just the next day's reaction. Maybe you are right and it is a nothing burger, but it will take at least a month to see if that is true.

    For example, in the 2008 financial crisis, AIG got bailed out on Sep 16, Dow fell 450 points.

    On Sep 17, Dow rebounded 400 pts.

    Obviously the financial crisis ended up not being a "one day wonder."

    We will check back on NVDA in a month.
     
    #14     Jan 28, 2025
  5. A month? LMAO the entire market is about to explode higher the next few days. You can already see the energy in the futures. 2008 doesn't matter. We have a market that will buy every dip and very fast. Each V happens in record time.

    Your example is also really bad, because back then the market was in a clear downtrend having previously fallen for almost an entire year. This market can't even have a freaking red candle on the monthly chart. It's the most unbreakable, powerful uptrend. Just pull it up. The thing is parabolic and every monthly bar always finds a way to be green, regardless if there's a day or 2 red at some point. The odd red bar just gets completely engulfed the next month.
     
    #15     Jan 28, 2025
  6. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    Yes you are correct, it is parabolic. And we know what happens in the end after things go parabolic.

    The market can go parabolic for a long time, maybe even through the end of Trump's term in 2028.

    But the market is not going to announce when the parabolic move continues or ends based off a one day price reaction to news.
     
    #16     Jan 28, 2025
  7. kashirin

    kashirin


    Yes sure
    With stratospheric valuation and black swan paradigm changing event which basically write off all AI investment market will explode higher

    I really hope so I will short it HARD!
     
    #17     Jan 29, 2025
  8. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    Black swans are unpredictable.
    I was ready for Monday....
    Just timed it with BOJ decisions.
     
    #18     Jan 29, 2025
  9. So you are shoring a market that can't sustain any down move. This is not 2022, 2008 or any year prior. This is the norm. It drops a day or 2 or even a week, but it's impossible for any drop to hold. Why? There's too much money in this system and too many 0DTE options that will never allow any real correction. There could be a scenario where NVDA drops, but they just pump other tech stocks to offset the drop. This market is bullet proof from having a real correction.
     
    #19     Jan 29, 2025
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #20     Jan 29, 2025