I must admit indeed that reaction works much better in thinner and more volatile markets, while liquid markets like EURUSD or ES are much harder to momentum trade intra-day except rare times when some serious news shift them into "runaway mode" as well, aka 2008-9 like action (ideally). Subjective, but such is my experience.
Yes, agree. Sadly the market isn't in this state currently. Yet these gurus claim to win consistently by using the same old methods??? Ya see-- it looks good on hind sight charts only-- so the Noobs keep on believing. And allowing the charlatans to keep on pretending I am impressed with your progress in understanding the way markets really work-- Cornix. Nice going!
0943 Even though the bar isn't "finished", it does go back into the range. So no trade yet. Incidentally, the 0935 bar was a retracement. But there was no trade bec we had not yet cleared the TR 0946 If the trade had been taken, it would now be scratched. All the stock reconciliations should be done by now 0950 If this holds above the TR, it will constitute a tradeable ret. Entry at 66.25 0952 3m before the bar is "finished" 0953 And we drop back into the TR. No trade.
I'm not going to argue the complexity of poker versus the complexity of trading. Suffice it to say there is a lot more complexity to poker than even the casual player understands. What I can state is that the failure rate at poker is at least as high as trading, that the edges almost evaporate when you reach the higher levels and that the psychologically of it is brutal because you will lose so often and can calculate exactly how unlucky you were. I would imagine I've lost more money than most people in this thread in one day, all while having an edge in the game. In poker, because the edges are so small, the long run is very, very long.
Some markets like CL/GC/DAX are still in a good state. Which probably has something to do with absence of big volume there and hence less "back and fill" games going. But "The It" of financial industry like ES, bond futures or major currencies are extremely choppy compared to happy days of the crisis, lol.
I wasn't lamenting, just stating a fact. You don't owe it to anyone to share your methodology. My point is when you develop a system of prediction it makes sense not to give it away, you are worried about losing the edge. When you develop a system based on price action and reaction you know that that edge can't die so you are more willing to share. It also ties into the whole ego thing.
Edge can die in case of PA too in markets with relatively low liquidity, cause at least in theory others may compete for the entry and maybe exit as well.
Not if you have a thoroughly-tested system. This morning is a good example. No setup yet and no trade. No win but no loss. 0958 Now approaching the btm of the TR 0959 And we break below it. Now we wait for the ret.
The idea is not to assume but to watch. Line gets broken, you get a pullback, you take a trade. If it doesn't go as expected you get out. You look for the next opportunity and get back on board. There are rules for all of this. For example - I'm able to chat right now because I see the same range the DBP sees. I don't need him to make a call. I know the next move is to wait for the range to resolve. We tested the upside and failed so I suspect we will test the lower end now. I don't get in a short to anticipate this. I just watch and wait.