Thanks, man. 19? I'm trading at OSE, you know, and I don't really watch the NYSE stock. The stock is down roughly 5% since my exit, so I think I did well. In fact, were I nimble, I could have exited even better, but since I was betting/hoping it would take out resistance, I decided to give it some room just in case. Personally, I'm thinking that it will chop around here for a while, not quite sure how long, before it finally pushes through over 160 and then we'll see 170 pretty soon. Oil prices will go back up as well. My exit was based on what I perceived to be a short/medium term top and that I was in need of cash.
These figures are from the period between opening CME at 8:30 till 15:15. So not 24 hours. Just open market at Chicago. As you should notice there is only ONE chop smaller than 5 points. All tge others are bigger. Average move is almost 11 points (269.25 points in 25 moves). You want to discuss but even don't check if it is 24 hours or only 7:15 hours. If you cannot make money in 5 or 10 points moves the conclusion is that you are not qualified as daytrader. You should find another hobby. It is possible to make money EVERYDAY, but apparently this is not the case for you. Today we had already a move from 2116.25 (lowest) to 2124.75 (highest), a 8.50 points move. I took net 5.75 points minus commissions. So it can be done.
It is clear that you don't have any clue about the value in $$$ of a 15 points move. If you make every day 2 points in the ES, trading 2 contracts without compounding, you make 52 K a year. Compounding can run it up to over 2.2 million $ a year (depending on the margin and max 100 contracts). I don't know what you are used to make but for me that's a lot of money. And 2 points is only 13% of the 15 points you speak about. The ES moves EVERY DAY more than 2 points in RTH.
The question is not:Is day trading worth it? The question is:Is day trading worth it FOR YOU? Not everybody is succesful in daytrading, but the same applies for LT. Not everybody is succesful there too. Find what suits you best, and trade that.
Historically 90% percent of traders or more lose in the long run. Furthermore even a winner CANNOT exceed annual 20% of return, in the long run. After stock market is open in Netherlands, 400 years ago, NO SINGLE trader EVER EXCEED annual 20% compounded for 400 years. Because if he exceed 20% consistently , then he (of course by his sons with his personal logic) should have all the asset in the world. Simply calculate 1.2^400. Probably best winner is Rothschilds family with keeping 10%(?) annual compounding for more than 100 years, for the 400 years, with bonds(?). However, I guess there is some trader with 10% annually compounded return, after comm+tax. At least Buffet showed it for 45 years, if his claim is correct.
It is because stock market is zero-sum, with respect to index. However, with presence of comm+tax, 90% traders or more should be losers, to maintain zero-sum principle. Of course, home poker is zero-sum, since there is NO comm+tax. Before launching a trading idea yourself, think about com+tax for 30 years, from 30 to 60. Suppose you pay 30% to comm+tax with given seed of 100K, yearly 30K will be accumulated ro 300K for 10 years and 900K for 30 years. Therefore, with a NEW TRADING IDEA, we have figure out (in advance by simulation) the estimated yearly comm+tax, to sum for 30 years. Not simple amount of yearly dollar, but percent-wise. There might be lots of trading logic, with tax rate 100%, implying you are a winner before comm+tax but a loser in account. Who the hell will survive for 30 years?
I checked the ES for 2015 and this are the real figures: If you take the range for 24 hours, the average range is 25.04 points a day. If you take the range only for the RTH, the average range is 20.22 points a day. The range in 24 hour format goes from 8.5 till 57 points a day. The range in RTH format goes from 7.25 till 50.75 points a day. But i only checked high and low, which means that within each day there can be a few big moves. What is sure is that there is at least on average a move of 20.22 points every day in 2015. These are the facts. 20 points a day is HUGE. It means 1000 $ per contract potential profit every day (on average). Or 260.000 $ a year for 1 contract. If you can take 10% of that average, it still is 26.000$ a year for an investment of only 1 contract.
With a tone of hugh data, why don't you try simulation with PC to test your logic? I hope you to say "Over the past 10 years, this logic attained annual compounding 20%, after comm+tax. In my cases, it took a few weeks, to get program result of simulation, based on my personal entry/exit logic. Usually more than 1000 lines of program. I have no complaint if you say "My new logic attains between 10% and 20%, annually compounded". Ten year evidence with 1.2^10 = 6.191736 is consistently similar to roughly 4000 times, for 45 years (from 30 to 75) by 1.2^45 = 3657.262. What the hell more can we make than 4000 times? With a seed of 10K, you shall be a 40000K as long as the logic is significant(correct). Similarly 100K seed is multiplied to 400000K.