is covid 19 what you call the "black swan?"

Discussion in 'Trading' started by vincentnyc, Mar 20, 2020.

is the covid 19 the black swan?

  1. Yes

    26 vote(s)
    74.3%
  2. No

    9 vote(s)
    25.7%
  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    You forgot, @dozu888 said, dead is dead. When this is over, perhaps he (I, we???) won't be around to defend (and argue) what he said.
     
    #31     Mar 20, 2020
    trader99 likes this.
  2. fan27

    fan27

    The main problem is the stress on the health care system. You don't need a high body count to have the healthcare system completely overwhelmed.
     
    #32     Mar 20, 2020
    trader99 likes this.
  3. schizo

    schizo

    19 March 20:00 GMT — Coronavirus hospitalisations occur at any age, says US CDC

    COVID-19 can be severe enough to require hospitalisation in adults of any age, according to a report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    The report, released on 18 March, analyses the severity of COVID-19 cases in the United States from 12 February–16 March by age group. Although the mortality rate is highest in adults over 65 — consistent with data reported from China, Italy and elsewhere — 20% of hospitalisations in the country occurred in people aged 20–44 years.
     
    #33     Mar 20, 2020
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    You are dead wrong @dozu888. Absolutely not true.

    Traffic fatality: one driver killed, send in coroner send to morgue, done. Cost: 1 car and some minor collateral damage.

    Coronavirus (2% dead rate): 50 positive, 10 in ICU, 100 medical personnel taking care of the 10, after two weeks of ICU, 1 dead, send to lab, analysis, send to infectious analysis... send to morgue, done. Cost: millions.

    The cost to society due to 1 coronavirus dead is enormous, 1 traffic dead, noise.
     
    #34     Mar 20, 2020
    trader99 likes this.
  5. schizo

    schizo

    Geez, that's really comforting to hear. Unfortunately, I won't be able to even stick out my middle finger. :rolleyes: :D

    Anyway, yeah, it's time to get your head out of your ass and see the reality for what it is.
     
    #35     Mar 20, 2020
  6. schizo

    schizo

    One thing is very clear. The entire world economy is going down the drain and we will never see the ATH ever again in our lifetime. So say goodbye to your bag of money.
     
    #36     Mar 20, 2020
  7. schizo

    schizo

    Coronavirus: 100,000 More Cases Reported Worldwide In Less Than 2 Weeks

    • [​IMG]
    March 20, 20209:18 AM ET

    The WHO figures reflect the most recent data as of late Thursday. As of Friday morning, there were 210,000 cases worldwide, according to the WHO. The situation is even worse when viewed through a COVID-19 dashboard created by the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, which reports coronavirus numbers in near real time.

    According to that tally, as of Friday morning, there are already nearly 250,000 cases worldwide — including 10,000 deaths from COVID-19. That dashboard also reports that some 86,000 people have recovered from the disease.
     
    #37     Mar 20, 2020
  8. dozu888

    dozu888

    the numbers are deaths.
     
    #38     Mar 20, 2020
  9. dozu888

    dozu888

    if you have to put it that way - look at the age group peak... this is a nature's forest fire, literally wiping out the old so the new can thrive.... think about the cost of maintaining all these old people... multiples of millions.
     
    #39     Mar 20, 2020
  10. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    Black swan is subjective, not objective.

    For instance, take a look at the image below. On Thanksgiving day, the turkey experiences a black swan event, but not the butcher. Another example, 9/11 was a black swan event to the people in the buildings, but not to the hijackers.

    See the point?

    [​IMG]
     
    #40     Mar 21, 2020