The dance metaphor is interesting, this is how I would interpret it. Broadly, there are two main types of dances - the choreographed and the improvised. One thing common for a majority of dance forms is music. Contact or botoh are examples of dance forms without music. Setting aside the choreographed and the music-less, leaves the improvised. The improvised would either be in sync with the music or not. Music in this metaphor would be the signal that the dancers movements would be influenced by - either in time with, contra to or syncopated with the dominant beat. Dancers have a finite vocabulary to express their interpretation of music. This kinesthetic and visual vocabulary is coupled to dance forms. These dance forms are supported by their respective cultures. Dancing salsa at a Milonga is appreciated differently than break dancers forming a circle at a hip hop club. Blues house parties go off differently than an ecstatic dance one. An outdoor festival promotes a different feeling than an underground warehouse one off. Each culture supports their particular view on beauty and how the witnessing or participation of that beauty makes them feel. There is simply the volume of music but music has many more qualities that can be discerned. Rthythm, melody, tempo, pitch, tuning, scale, etc. all are qualities that can be modeled to music. In this metaphor they can be coupled to transaction volume. Dancers dance to music. In a live setting, quality musicians respond to dancers. The feedback loop between musicians and dancers in live participatory events transcends anything that can be choreographed. The connection between music and dancers varies across the forms. Some forms promote a very intimate connection between dancers, the dancers to music and the music to dancers. Other forms are more loosely coupled. Price cases would be the dance moves specific to a form. The dancers themselves are the participants choosing how to move their body in relation to the music. All this talk about dancing makes me want to dance more!
Kelly, Thanks for your brilliant and carefully presented post. Chartists will benefit in so far as they carefully read your post with "open-minds" -- but alas, "People Believe What They Want to Believe." It is only when one has found a way to trade successfully without charts, that charts have a place in an approach that will be consistently profitable.
One can only assume. Not long before he passed, I seen him on a late night Wizetrade infomercial/interview.
Karl Mattingly presentation on TedX on this subject is especially insightful. He’s an ex-banker and discusses using this concept in financial forecasting. When he discusses trust networks and trust proxies my ears perked up. edit: When searching for the above transcript, this is the close I got. The almanis website is still in infancy but I imagine it's a matter of time before it gains some traction. Cypto-markets and all the alt coins would be an interesting application. https://www.economist.com/news/busi...ess-wisdom-crowds-without-groupthink-new-type
So, you think most his money was made from book sales? Didn't his wife continue his work? I have never bought a book of his but have read excerpts here and there. He (his books) seems to be recommended in the trading world.
I think so. Psychology and motivational stuff pretty much. I don’t think he died with high net worth.
Here are some observations that we can all agree on: 1) Charts have some value insofar as these provide a pictorial display of historic market movement (price action over time). 2) Charts are not necessary to trade profitably. 3) Charts allow, for those who believe that the markets are made up of predictable patterns -- to identify areas of "better" trade entries and exits. 4) Charts are held to be meaningless, if the Markets are a "Random Walk" 5) Charts are showing market history and may mislead one to trade with "what they believe" rather than "what they see." 6) Utilizing statistical information, such as the probability of price movements over a given time, may be obtained from options chains, and probability analysis utilizing what is predicted for future price extremes. (measured moves or market maker moves) 7) Trade strategy will eliminate the need for charting when one utilizes hedging as opposed to stops. (Duration trumps direction.) Boils down to the age-old debate of Random Walk vs. Predictable Markets. This is also contingent on the trader's outlook based on Duration, or how long they hold the trade. Hence the need for Targets along with durational terms, which are required before entering or exiting trades. Charts may be of little help and may actually mislead -- the cliche, "past performance is ...."
David McCandless has an interesting presentation on this regard. The charts he presents create relevancy in data formatting. The beginning charts deal with military spending when compared to other countries. It then shows an insightful dataviz when military spending is compared to GDP. At the 3:00ish mark, there's a dataviz on tracking fear in digital media. At the 6:00ish mark, is a pattern that is quite surprising as well as quite predicable. At the 9:30ish mark, there's a dataviz that compares our five senses to computer bandwidth,... there's a teensy weensy block in the lower right hand corner which represents our cognitive capacity to process the bandwidth. My favorite quotes from him: "Let the dataset change the mindset" "Data is the new (s)oil" So in regards you your posting MACD, YES,... AND,...
@Sprout -- OMG! Combine your recommended: "The wisdom of the crowd" video and now the David McCandless -- "The Beauty of Data Visualization" video These two recommended Video Posts by you are Must Watch to "Fertilize" the Trader's Brain. YES, your points are well taken regarding the power to understand markets utilizing proper tools to do so. True, we are overloaded with way too much data input and therefore, your point is well taken -- Visuals Help. Markets are "Crowd" data sets and Visuals permit the quicker more efficient use of the Data obtained when making Trading Decisions. (One Picture is Worth a Thousand Words). So, we get a flood of data inputs from many sources, one of which may be charts, then more input from news feeds, add indicators, add etc. and this makes for TMI and often leads to analysis paralyzes. Lack of clarity and contra or co-linear data inputs leads to losses. Therefore, in that regard charts may help some traders in their decisions. For me, there are more concise and integrated visual tools. For Example: This one graph which shows the trades I have open in the ThinkorSwim Live Trading account -- in one glance I can determine any management required and the present risks as well as P&L. This may be used to enter trades as well as being able to manage while open. No charts were necessary when placing the trade as the required data was simply based on the statistical probability of profit (POP). The learning curve to use this tool is less than using charts and perhaps many other data inputs. (This may require more detailed information on how to read it and if there is interest in that I will try and post a video.)
Sorry for the large post above. I am totally lame at how to post pics etc. I wanted to use a video to explain better but I still have not figured out how to do that. If anyone can Please help me with posting instructions and sizing pics I would be grateful for the help.