when oil was around $150 about 13-15 years ago. t Boone Pickens said we will never see oil under $100 in our life times, well we saw it hit -37 in 2020. Your statement speak of inexperience and or arrogance.
Exactly why I never make predictions on any price levels. When someone says that we will never see a low price levels in our life times, this shows arrogance or inexperience.
I never said I am 100% sure that we will never see a certain level on bitcoin. I am simply saying that I THINK that we won't get to a level of $15K based on historical trading patterns and fundamentals. There is a huge bid out there based on how many hardcore bitcoin enthusiasts there are out there and the fact that it costs way more than $15K to mine one bitcoin.
You are basing your risk assessment upon historical trading patterns for an asset with no fundamentals?
Fundamentals? Which ones? The p/e ratio of infinity or the p/b ratio of infinity? Or the earnings growth of zero? The "mining" doesn't grant it any particular value any more than digging a hole and filling it in again increases my property value. You can't convert the Bitcoin back into the electricity it took to mine it. Just because it costs a certain amount to manufacture x, doesn't mean that I will have any customers at that price. If I spend 100 million to film a flop, then I just lose money. There's no economic participation trophy when my costs are automatically covered by the sale price. As for a "huge bid" do you have actual data based on real market orders or are these bids that you think might materialize , but don't have evidence of? Wouldn't "hardcore Bitcoin enthusiasts" already be "invested"? Where are they going to get even more money to "invest?"