if one fades jeff cooper of hit and run fame one can do ok ... his calls have been off on www.realmoney.com that being said ... overtime he will run circles around most of us ... perhaps he is just in a mild slump ? he is running OPM so I hope not
You are the 2nd trader telling me that the markets are not extended. I cant believe anyone would just blindly buy right here. I would atleast wait for a 2-3 day orderly pullback.
Let's be honest here, you have been playing the "Pick The Top" game for quite some time in this IWM Index. Moreover, every week you come out and state that the trend is overextended and in need of a 2-3 day pullback . . . The problem with your methodology is that there is NO methodology. There are no technicals divergences that would indicate a top here. Yes, the sentiment measures are quite excessive. Yet, the market has not broken any significant moving averages and your trade of being short the IWM is quite frankly like "pissing into the wind" You ask how anyone could do any buying right here into such an extended trend, and yet the IWM that you say that you trade is up from 114.50 as of last Tuesday. That's a +4% move in the past 5 trading days! By the way, anyone happen to see the Semiconductor Book-To-Bill ratio after the close today? 1.20 for December The above number means that there was $120 worth of new orders received for every $100 of product billed for the month. Furthermore, the 3-month average of worldwide bookings in December 2003 was $1.1 billion. The bookings figure is 19% above the revised November 2003 level of $923 million and 33 percent above the $827 million in orders posted in December 2002. The December data support the positive outlook for strong growth in semiconductor capital investment this year," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "Analysts presenting at the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium this month were in agreement that 2004 is shaping up to be a double-digit growth year for the global semiconductor equipment industry." Now it could very well be that much of this data is already priced into the chip-sector right now. It will be interesting to see how the SMH reacts to this news, because as we all know it isn't the news per se that is important; it is HOW THE MARKET RESPONDS to the news. I'm flat here. And very flexible to react either way.
Well technically we did have a four day pullback. It didnt feel like much to me though and so I have not gone balls to the walls on new trades though.
I'm holding 3 shorts and no longs. All three are in the green. The market trend has been decidedly upwards and I usually don't like to fight the tape but lately I'm finding far better setups to the short side. On the long side the break outs I'm seeing are often associated with high volatility. To the short side I'm seeing compressed volatility followed by an a breakdown - a far easier way to trade. I won't presume to call a top because it may not happen for quite a while, but tops are often associated with high volatility, which is what I'm seeing in many prospective stock plays. While the market may chug along north for a while longer, I think it is going to be more challanging than throwing darts to find winners on the long side once earnings are over. Luck to all.
Oh man, this is too funny. I knew when I saw this poll last night with only one guy long this market would rip. This is too funny. Why do people keep trying to short the strongest market we have had in 5 years. Makes no sense.