First of all, I totally agree that common sense is what matters above everything else. Most lack it, and that's why most aren't profitable. Agreed (to your first premise), in the sense that a "better" timed entry (quotations marks because some might disagree about anyone being capable of objectively picking a great entry most of the time) will statistically improve your chances of getting a profitable trade, on any individual trade. So, the entry is very important. But, over the lifetime of most trades, even the ones with a bad entry, there is a time where they are profitable. Concentrating on getting a great entry every time is very hard, but the exit is what ultimately determines the Pnl, and therefore by most accounts, is of greater importance. Also, in a portfolio it's very hard to perfectly time the entry every time. Also, over one's career as a trader, the significance of any single trader would be minimal, and a systematic exit to lock in the profits or minimizing the losses, I think is the way to go. I could be wrong, but it works for me, and trading is a very personal pursuit, what might suit me might bankrupt somebody else. It can be argued that a systematic entry will be help, and I agree, a good system needs to have both. But with both, the exit, I think, has more bearings on whether or not I am up or down overall.
I can't tell you. Are you profitable quantwizard? then you dont need to know Let's just say I'm going short 1st of may.
You should go to Coca-Cola and ask them what is their recipe ? Or go to KFC to ask for the secret recipe ??
I could sum up my own Holy Grail in one sentence, but it would be "entirely subjective" and a typical quant would squeal like a pig......
Almost all strategies involve speculation. There's some amount of prediction and predictions can go wrong. The only strategy I have personally seen that wasn't speculation was a tax arbitrage strategy that I ran several years ago. That was pure arbitrage and required no prediction of the future.
Fortunately I am, check my journal thread Quantum Leap. Was just curious whether there are more than one holy grail...
This guy must be profitable. He's in his forties and flew sorties against the Viet Cong (at age 3) and shut down Monsanto with his bare-hands. He's also a civil rights hero. Gentlemen.... may I present Alex Wasilewski of PureTick.com http://www.amazon.com/review/REMADZYMOYN8Q Alex is underwater on his house in Destin and desperate to sell, so perhaps you can get a discount on the pureshit.