Is any part of your trading based on intuition?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mynd66, Jan 25, 2010.

  1. Really? Is this as solid as your other "success" stories?

    For example:

    nwbprop -- flamed out under your direct tutelage. Unfortunately, that thread was deleted but there are some who remember it.
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1109633&highlight=nwbprop#post1109633

    Neoxx -- you said Neoxx was doubling his money every three days when he was actually losing money.

    ScottD -- hasn't posted since March when he said "Cash Cow" (as certified by you) isn't profitable.
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2462769&#post2462769

    RoughTrader -- your claims about his trading deflated each time I called you on it and he hasn't posted since May.

    04-23-09 01:26 PM
    "For SCT like trading, rough trader takes 1500 dollars to 94,000 dollars"
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2399521&#post2399521

    04-26-09 06:51 PM
    "Bottom line: looks like roughtrader makes 20,000 a month on two contracts average while scaling out of entries on his ATS"
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2403231#post2403231

    05-22-09 07:28 PM
    "Rough trader is only making a couple thousand a month on a couple of contracts. He needs to make one adjustment to make 20,000 a month. He needs to add 18 contracts to his trading cars"
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2437715#post2437715

     
    #61     Jan 29, 2010
  2. Do you also play a mean fiddle?

    Was this you on TV? Yeah, I know they said it's Charlie Daniels but there is a resemblance and judging by your claims...

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2715937>
     
    #62     Jan 29, 2010
  3. mynd66

    mynd66

    why all the bullshit? can't we just have a thoughtful discussion and leave all the childish shit out of this thread?
     
    #63     Jan 29, 2010
  4. Don't forget to stop in the gift shop on your way out and buy the limited edition Jack Hershey paper trading doll to commemorate his stellar 24% loss in a trading contest in 2002 that he didn't have the integrity to finish.. limit one per customer

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2428031>
     
    #64     Jan 29, 2010
  5. Redneck

    Redneck



    X,

    Great posts :)

    RN
     
    #65     Jan 30, 2010
  6. ehorn

    ehorn

    I see Paparazzo666 is back in the bush with the camera flash at the ready to start the new year...

    <object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yAd29GlCKf4&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yAd29GlCKf4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object>

    Happy New Year!
     
    #66     Jan 30, 2010
  7. At least I have the good intuition to put fools on my IGNORE list.
    whew

    Now, to the topic at hand...I'm not being argumentative, but, asking if one trades using "intuition", is like asking if you trade what you think, or trading only what you see.
    My answer to ALL of those questions is
    D. All of the above.
    ymmv
     
    #67     Jan 30, 2010
  8. And another losing year for Jack's little sycophant eforlorn
     
    #68     Jan 31, 2010
  9. Poor old Jack believes he was hired by the UN and several countries to investigate claims of global warming at Antarctica as he told us in this thread:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161373&perpage=6&pagenumber=14

    He must be the only professional adventurer that never leaves his computer



    Don't forget to stop in the gift shop on your way out and buy the limited edition Jack Hershey paper trading doll to commemorate his stellar 24% loss in a trading contest in 2002 that he didn't have the integrity to finish.. limit one per customer

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2428031>
     
    #69     Feb 1, 2010
  10. Jack, do you really think your obfuscations can hide the failure of your "method"? The simple truth is that I tested one of your entry methods and it doesn't work. Period.

    Specifically, I tested YOUR concept as outlined in YOUR paper, Catch Up With Tomorrow's Paper Today. I tested buying YOUR "0 to 7 turn" (see page 8) on 1000 stocks from 2000 to 2005 -- a total of 5000 stock-years -- using spydertrader's code for the scoring and exiting 5 days later and got the equity curve below.

    [​IMG]


    Your attempt to add a new condition (for a prescreened "universe") that wasn't in your original paper is BS, as is your criticism of the time exits which I've told you ad nauseum were necessary because your exits are broken. You've also wrongly said that time exits are invalid when in fact they're useful for isolating the efficiency of entries. Or in your case, the lack of efficiency.

    To further show how worthless that buying your "0 to 7 turn" is, I tested one of MY entry methods under the exact same conditions and parameters I used for testing your "method" -- 5 day exits, same stocks, same time period, NO prescreened "universe," same transaction fees, etc., and got this equity curve.

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2715590>


    Like it or not, here's the bottom line: buying your "0 to 7 turn" is no better that flipping a coin.

    If one takes the trades from your "method" and compares them to trades from random entries, they'll find that the two groups of trades are statistically indistinguishable. Meaning, as I said, your "method" is no better than flipping a coin.

    On the other hand... if one tests a profitable entry method (like mine) and compares those trades with trades generated from random entries, the differences between the two groups are statistically off the charts. Your inability to grasp this doesn't invalidate it.
     
    #70     Feb 1, 2010