agree 100% and for me, i define intuition as subconscious thought with a foundation or a certain level of experience that has become so internalized that it it takes very little effort or no conscious effort to take action in your best interest. for me, the experience i have after several years of day trading one instrument, it might be the old deal of first it is unconscious incompetence, then after a while it becomes conscious incompetence, then conscious competence (turnng the corner to profitability) and finally unconscious competence (becoming consistent).
I like these results; they are not a claims nor are his lifestyle results a claim (s). What I like best about them is that they were done by a person who worked to learn the PVT application. Next he converted it into an ATS. Then he used the ATS to trade. There were several consequenses. By the numbers. 1. He worked to learn. 2. He made an ATS to trade as he learned. 3. He contracted with Freightliner to build a custom unit. 4. He had a custom travel trailor built. 5. He attattached a 36" disk to the roof that hydraulically could be positioned to receive market data anywhere he treavelled. 6. He retired to conclude a 6 month leave of absense he had been on. This is a story of how learning works; how understanding coding works; how having the freedom to do as one wishes according to a life style. Trading, for him allowed him to purchase what he needed, to be able to travel and to have a home base to return to when he wished. You have done thousands of back tests and posted the results of three all of your design. You proved more or less that random entries can either have BE exits chosen by you When you choce the 0 to 7 entry and your time out exit you got BE and losses equal to trading costs for a net loss. Random entries and you time out also gave a BE result and losses equal to the trading costs. A third test you did had your well designed entry and a time out exit and made the net equity curve you posted for the years 2002 to 2005 for 1000 stocks of your choosing. So maybe some ET'ers would like to know whether the results of the ATS trading cited is fairly effective relative to a back test you have postponed doing for a few years: the test results of using "Unusual Volume Correlation Table" provided to you a few years ago. Do you have it? Probably not since it is difficult to search for anything I have posted or recommended. One of the complications of doing this is using a current Universe. Choosing the stocks from the Universe can be done by an Excel sort (We do that on Sundays). My feeling is that people do use the applications of the Pool Extraction Paradigm: PVT, SCT and SSR. 4 out of 5 have rejected it over the years. As times have changed this rejection rate hasn't changed. The 1 in five who use it seem to find it helpful. There is something in common with the 4 out of five who reject the approach. Most of them know that it is not possible to prove something doesn't work; this fact is especially true if the parameters are changed for testing convenience. You really stand out as an example. You are tireless in promoting your views which are less than logical. The appraoch we use was documented for over five years. People who made the effort to achieve transferrence (meaning they did the work to become differentiated and they did the work to clean up all the myriad of issues that had to be addressed) became very successful. The natural path these people followed was getting a foundation>> trading PVT>>>trading SCT>>>>>helping others and contributing to local problem solving. Here you are making the kind of effort you do to "protect n00bies" from an opportunity. Surprise yourself for once; use the Unusual Volume Correlation Table to find out how volume leads price in trading. For those who use Scoring to assess the natural cycle, use the A/D +5 to -5 scale published for stocks. We bias the A to include only +2 through +5. For cycle trading, the 8 scores apply and the A, D A "hold" scores take you from BO of the RTL to the FTT. We observe through the D, A, D, A ,D as a "wait". with respect to the pattern the stock trade is from 2 of B2B through the last 2B. The Wait is all of R2R 2B 2R plus the B of B2B. the objective is to enter late and leave early to pick off less days per cycle. The Univierse 2 and three day holds are preferred of longer hold cycles. We do not do any "5 day time outs", ever since no stock can make it through the filter for selection). Timing is what optimizes the conpound interest formula since the exponent is where optimizing takes place. With respect to the columes of the "Unusual Volume Correlation Table", the primary objective is to "have cash to trade with". The price lift of lags the volume signal for 1 1/2 hours. That time period is spent getting a peaking volume hold stock to cash to do the money velocity "crossover" optimally. As an old "hold" can't keep up in money velocity, it is sold to have cash for an accelerating money velocity batter. Lists are made on Sunday for a week's trading. Most people have jobs when they begin, so they do evening planning. On the other hand some of our local participants have flex hours or are free during the day. they use the 30 minute chart and observe the patterns and the related volume. What happens is that we all shoot for two trades per week. this is 100 cycles per year. As a person "grows" into the routine his trading cycels improve. A natural path, in terms of current market money velocities is 40 to 60 to 60 to 100 turns per year. Our nominal gain is 50% of a 20% minimum matural cycle. By having 2 to 3 pinch hitters for the batting streams as back ups, there is always a stock to use to fill in. Most people do annotations with respect to seeing the peaking volume and the FTT of the cycle (precision for exits). For the above comments I have integrated our three ways for dealing with the order of events on the attachment. (It is part of a Power Point) The eight parts have one score value associated with each. Obviously, this is a lot of fun and is a great leadin to SCT trading which uses the same template.
Back in March of last year when the banks started using an Imaginary System for valuating assets instead of Mark to Market, my intuition (or common sense?) told me that it would only fool the market for about a week. So I went long SKF. OUCH!! I still go with my gut on occasion with good results, I just quit trying to rationalize it. PS: I'm not getting rich, but I'm making a living, Please note "on occasion" Good Luck
after you've been doing something well for a while it becomes 'automatic' and requires very little conscious thought. if you can't relate, maybe listen to (or read about) how a top athlete describes a top performance....usually they will say something about "not over thinking or just being in the flow/zone and feeling like it was natural.
I agree with you whole heartly. With respect to seeing the Pattern I posted. There are stages such as you mentioned. Once a person observes in a fractal manner the "nesting of fractals" aspect becomes a terrific and life changing experience. By understanding volume leads price, the "hold" become more and more natural. The end of hold turns into a window for doing the "change" from one side of the market to another. At some point, in your four stages, a facet I call "anticipation" enters the picture unconsciously then consciously. From the OP's PM, I gather he is using "intuition" to describe what is "anticipation" for me. The timing of trades can be important once more and more reversals are done during a day. In trading, there is an issue of missing the timing. If the timing is inaccurate, then the trader has to really deal with your four stages very thoroughly. It is at the conscious incompetence stage I guess. Once a trader moves a litle further along, his first error preventions happen when he lets his unconscious (intuition sort of) push him to a kind of competence described as "I don't know "why" I did that but is was correct at the time". It would be the middle stage it you used five stages instead of four. This stage is where the rubber meets the road in finally achieving success. It is where the formerly established support and comfort from getting along in trading turns to having conficence in trading. The major crutch of learning to trade is the ROUTINE done over and over as time passes. All of time is consumed applying tools and the tools fit into the routine as what is worked with. (drilling with each tool). I can use a hammer. I can use a plane. I can use a bevel. I can use a molding plane. I can use my chisels (72 in the set). I can sharpen tools. There is an order of events to get the wood to be furniture. The unconscious knowledge that anticipates the next step in the order of events is learned. Skill relates to behavioral actions for most people. But the closure of a routine is more important because it is done over and over in each routine cycle. The feeling of having the readiness by knowing then seeing what you know you know is a kind of intuition. The Ultimate intuition. ES bar 29, then 30 today would be the "best" to reflect upon for ultimate readiness. Putting those stages in the picture was very helpful. Ending repeated failure is the tough nut to crack.It is where significant mental differentiation begins. It is like the point where the minimum inference came about in long term memory from sufficient drilling with tools.
EVERY person trades off of their intution...everyone...unless you simply close your eyes and push "buy"...even if you trade by a system, it was your intuition that lead to the parameters of that system...
I know and value your posts, just fooling around. sorry I agree 100% with your post. Often at least for me in sports the performance had to be broken down in parts, analyzed and "rules" formed and then after a while it became automatic. Maybe that applies in trading as well.
There you go again. Are you that far gone or are you lying? Only one of the three backtest results that I posted was of my design -- the profitable one. Buying the "0 to 7 turn" is YOUR design. Recognize this from your paper? I even used spydertrader's code for the testing as I've told you ad nauseum. "Rockets" are also of YOUR design. Which is probably why they don't work. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2715897>